Tulane vs ull

[tulaneoutlaw]

Opens at -3 tulane, no total yet

[waverider]

Seems reasonable. About a TD on a neutral site.

[Poseidon]

Side note. This is the third straight season Sumrall has started 1-2 IIRC.

[PeteRasche]

Side note. This is the third straight season Sumrall has started 1-2 IIRC.

Remind us again what his records ended up in the prior two?

[waverider]

Side note. This is the third straight season Sumrall has started 1-2 IIRC.

Remind us again what his records ended up in the prior two?

I was just thinking about the starts to his two Troy seasons.

For those interested:
The first season they lost to Ole Miss by 18 then two weeks later lost by 4 at App State. They then went on to win the rest including Coastal in the CCG.

Second season, lost second game at KSU by 29 then lost by 2 to JMU. They won out and beat App St in the CCG.

[tjtlja]

SP+ has ULL as a 5 point favorite vs. Tulane, resulting in one of the biggest differences from Vegas this week which has Tulane as a 3.5 point favorite.

The Cajuns are no joke. Another tough game for the 🌊 ahead.

[tulaneoutlaw]

Total around 55.5. Pretty interesting the difference in SP and the spread. It's why I said in the preseason we wouldn't be favored at ULL, because Vegas and SP+ are usually somewhat close. My guess? SP+ is off in this one. Vegas can adjust to certain things, SP+ gets tinkered with very slightly in the offseason and then just spits out its numbers. When you see a difference this big, it's usually because somebody knows something the model can't account for.

One other reason for the difference probably has to do with homefield advantage. SP+ bakes in 2.5 for the home team. But ULL is renovating part of their stadium so it's hard to actually know what the atmosphere will be like. I also don't think it's known as a particularly hostile place to play.

[waverider]

Then there’s this: (per Southern Charm Sports). I’m guessing FSU is losing credibility in the FPI which brings Memphis down some.

Top 25 G5 teams per ESPN’s FPI 9/15/24
1. Boise State
2. Tulane
3. Memphis
4. UNLV
5. Fresno State
6. South Florida
7. Toledo
8. Northern Illinois
9. Marshall
10. Texas State
11. San Jose State
12. Coastal Carolina
13. James Madison
14. South Alabama
15. Louisiana

Full 25 https://x.com/southerncharmsp/status/18 ... oMXE-CB9VQ

[GretnaGrn]

ULL is hard to peg; they've won their first two in blowouts, but might have had the easiest first two games of any school in the country (Grambling and Kennesaw State, both in Lafayette). I don't think they're terrible, but they're definitely not Kansas State or Oklahoma.

[PeteRasche]

Y'all remember last year when we played the preseason favorite for the SBC in our opener? And we weren't even coming into that one pissed off like we are this year.

Well, okay, maybe that whole "original Mardi Gras" helmet thing pissed off one or two guys.

[Twowaves]

I remember the game well. It’s where Pratt made the bonehead play of the year. He never recovered fully from that

[tulaneoutlaw]

ULL is hard to peg; they've won their first two in blowouts, but might have had the easiest first two games of any school in the country (Grambling and Kennesaw State, both in Lafayette). I don't think they're terrible, but they're definitely not Kansas State or Oklahoma.

Yep. They threw all over Grambling and then ran it down Kennesaw's throat. In aggregate, their QB Wooldridge has about a season's worth of games at the helm between 2022 and 2023. In those two years he was right around 56% completion and under 7.5 yards per attempt. He has looked better this year so far, he just didn't need to throw much against Kennesaw. If we can stop their ground game, which looks to have a pretty decent backfield of Zylan Perry and Elijah Davis, I don't think Wooldridge will be able to beat us. My guess is they will try to run it on us like Kansas St. was able to.

[waverider]

Just saw a Tom Fornelli tweet about 3rd down conversions that will add a little context to ULL’s two games. Kennesaw St has gone 3 & out on 57.6% of their possessions.

[nolasilver]

Ull did have a week off to prepare for us. With that being said SP+ is way off on this, and I think has some sort of conference wide bonus/hard-on for SBC.

[G-wave]

Is Shazz still out for this one ?

[ForeverTU]

Is Shazz still out for this one ?

From what I understand we shouldn’t expect him back until week 5-6

[Sophandros]

On offense, I'm curious about how many snaps and where Thompson will play this week.

On defense, I want to see us stop the run better than we have over the last couple of weeks. ULL has a some good backs, so that will be a major challenge.

[QuarterbackU]

How are we health wise besides Preston?

[tjtlja]

I have asked about Barnes but appears no one knows. Other than that, I really don’t know of anyone else that is injured.

[Bham Wave]

Barnes did not kick yesterday and that is the day they work on kicking. Doesn't mean for sure he is out but that certainly isn't a good sign.

Clayton-Johnson probably out this week.

It is the last stuff Sumrall discussed in his press conference yesterday.

[waverider]

Barnes did not kick yesterday and that is the day they work on kicking. Doesn't mean for sure he is out but that certainly isn't a good sign.

Clayton-Johnson probably out this week.

It is the last stuff Sumrall discussed in his press conference yesterday.

I will add that he made it sound like Barnes will just be a season long thing and that he’ll play when he’s feeling good but may have weeks that he’s out. At least that’s how I took it.

[tulaneoutlaw]

Not a ton of movement so far this week. line floated to -3.5 but now back at -3 some places. Total at 54.5.

[Sophandros]

Don't really expect to see much movement on the spread for this one. We're three weeks in, people generally know who teams are by now, and this one seemed reasonable from the opening.

I'm curious to hear your take on the O/U.

[nolasilver]

My biggest worry about this game is if we don’t blow them out and they stick around, will be the question marks around Barnes. We better not need a late field goal

[GreenHeart]

My biggest worry about this game is if we don’t blow them out and they stick around, will be the question marks around Barnes. We better not need a late field goal

Please, please don’t let us be 2 points behind with 2 seconds left on their 20 yard line… please…