Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

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nolasilver
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Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by nolasilver »

Vega’s puts the win total at over under 7.5. Memphis at 8.5 leading the conference and usf is at 7.5 as well.

Personally I think 7.5 is low for Tulane
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by doncecco »

New coach, new QB, a lot of new players - I can see where we win 8 games as we work through that. Frankly, if Sumrall wins more than 8, he would be better than advertised.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by nolasilver »

Our talent level is very high, while our opponents talent level is modest. Our hardest games are Kstate at home, OU, Memphis at home and USF and then it really drops off. But I agree Our qb situation is in limbo.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by Marathon Wave »

I'll take the over. No doubt. Don't think qb position is in that much of limbo.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by waverider »

I’d take the over barring some unforeseen circumstances. I also kind of like not having as big of a target on our backs.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by nolasilver »

I also think we are in as good, (if not better) hands, with Sumrall and his OC & DC. Very excited for the season.

I think Memphis actually have more chances to slip up than we do. They have florida state, UTSA, USF, Troy, Tulane (and navy).

Another interesting one is Boise state who have an over under of 8.5 wins. They play Oregon, Wash state, Oregon State, SDSU & @ Wyoming. They will clearly get smashed by Oregon, but the rest of those games are winnable and would give them a good resume.

USF has resources and very good recruiting but I’m still not sold they’re “back”. They went 7-6 last year. ECU has actually had two very good years of recruiting and could be a dark horse aac contender.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by tjtlja »

If our QB situation is above expectations, we will be in the thick of things.

We really cannot screw this up or show any slippage. If so, conference realignment could be effected and that could determine our fate as an athletic program. We must keep winning in football at a high level.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by tulaneoutlaw »

This seems like a very reasonable line to me. No doubt Vegas is giving us little chance against KSU or OU. Not zero chance, just little chance. ULL is not projected to be an easy game either. Then in conference we've got Memphis who will be tough and USF who is projected to be solid. Let's say we split those. At best you are looking at 9-3.

And then you factor in the uncertainty at QB and the number of new transfers in at other spots and it seems very possible that our most likely outcome is right around 8 wins. I will note that the line is juiced to the over, so even Vegas thinks 8 is much more likely than 7 at this point. The question is, will our new talent gel and perform to the upper bound of our projections or will they fall short? They won't all be hits, but we need more to be hits than not, especially at QB.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by tulaneoutlaw »

nolasilver wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 8:36 am I also think we are in as good, (if not better) hands, with Sumrall and his OC & DC. Very excited for the season.

I think Memphis actually have more chances to slip up than we do. They have florida state, UTSA, USF, Troy, Tulane (and navy).

Another interesting one is Boise state who have an over under of 8.5 wins. They play Oregon, Wash state, Oregon State, SDSU & @ Wyoming. They will clearly get smashed by Oregon, but the rest of those games are winnable and would give them a good resume.

USF has resources and very good recruiting but I’m still not sold they’re “back”. They went 7-6 last year. ECU has actually had two very good years of recruiting and could be a dark horse aac contender.
Memphis and Boise have the highest win totals of those I can see so far. Liberty will be set around 11 and they should coast to the CUSA title again. Maybe ECU can do everybody a favor and beat them because I don't see them losing in conference. I don't think there's a clear challenger in the MAC with Toledo losing Finn. The Sunbelt will be interesting when they are released. May be a challenger or two in there.

Somebody from the G5 will finish with 11+ wins but it's hard to know for sure who that is. Even in the AAC, UTSA, USF, and Tulane are all lurking with UTSA being even more heavily juiced to the over.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by nolasilver »

tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 11:23 am This seems like a very reasonable line to me. No doubt Vegas is giving us little chance against KSU or OU. Not zero chance, just little chance. ULL is not projected to be an easy game either. Then in conference we've got Memphis who will be tough and USF who is projected to be solid. Let's say we split those. At best you are looking at 9-3.

And then you factor in the uncertainty at QB and the number of new transfers in at other spots and it seems very possible that our most likely outcome is right around 8 wins. I will note that the line is juiced to the over, so even Vegas thinks 8 is much more likely than 7 at this point. The question is, will our new talent gel and perform to the upper bound of our projections or will they fall short? They won't all be hits, but we need more to be hits than not, especially at QB.
I think we are giving too much respect to ULL. They went 6-7 last year and this years recruits/portal is #110. Can we lose to them ? Sure, but I expect us to be 10+ point favorites.

Usf does have considerable talent coming in from the last cycle and this cycle, but they went 7-6 against an aac slate. That’s not impressive. We also get them at home. I also expect us to be 10+ favorites in that one.

Memphis is the medias pick to win the aac, and they do probably have the most talent in the aac. But with that game at Tulane and what I believe to be a far superior coaching staff on our sideline it will be close to a pick em and a game we have a very good shot at winning.

Ou & ksu, are not elite and we will have a good shot at them. How good of a shot will likely rest on our DC and what our QBs can do. But we aren’t facing multiple all Americans or a top 5 team. I would guess ksu would be a 10 point favorite @ yulman (same I believe ole miss was).

Back to the original point, I definitely predict the 7.5 line moving.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by doncecco »

We can beat K St - heck we beat them on the road when they nearly won the Big 12 Championship.

OU in Norman would be the biggest upset in Tulane history (ok, maybe not sure about pre-1970s, but I'll call it that). USC was on a neutral field
(with Tulane having the fan advantage), and a bowl game where the motivation can be muted, especially for their stars.

Again, if Sumrall pulls off the upset in Norman and goes on to 10+ wins, he could be a one and done at Tulane.
Last edited by doncecco on Wed May 15, 2024 4:05 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

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doncecco wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 6:09 pm We can beat K St - heck we beat them on the road when they nearly won the Big 12 Championship.
Narrator: They did indeed go on to win the Big 12 Championship that year
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by nolasilver »

And that’s when the Big 12 was good 😉

Oklahoma did reload this year with the #9 ranked recruiting class. But we won’t be facing a Caleb Williams level qb, we will face an inexperienced qb in a new setting and with the SEC opener against Tennessee looming the following week. Could be a trap game for them.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

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nolasilver wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 7:58 pm And that’s when the Big 12 was good 😉

Oklahoma did reload this year with the #9 ranked recruiting class. But we won’t be facing a Caleb Williams level qb, we will face an inexperienced qb in a new setting and with the SEC opener against Tennessee looming the following week. Could be a trap game for them.
We definitely catch them at a good time.

The QB at K St is supposed to be really good. I think Outlaw may have mentioned him here a few times. Fortunately, we have another defensive minded coach.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by doncecco »

waverider wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 6:19 pm
doncecco wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 6:09 pm We can beat K St - heck we beat them on the road when they nearly won the Big 12 Championship.
Narrator: They did indeed go on to win the Big 12 Championship that year
You know, I thought so, but then I thought of TCU beating Michigan and getting trounced by UGA in the CFP, and thought - TCU must have won. But I forget they let TCU in anyway, regrettably.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by tulaneoutlaw »

waverider wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 9:35 pm
nolasilver wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 7:58 pm And that’s when the Big 12 was good 😉

Oklahoma did reload this year with the #9 ranked recruiting class. But we won’t be facing a Caleb Williams level qb, we will face an inexperienced qb in a new setting and with the SEC opener against Tennessee looming the following week. Could be a trap game for them.
We definitely catch them at a good time.

The QB at K St is supposed to be really good. I think Outlaw may have mentioned him here a few times. Fortunately, we have another defensive minded coach.
Yes, Avery Johnson is quite good. More of a runner than a thrower but cab do both. He is better that Adrian Martinez who we beat last time, plus they have a deeper stable of rbs than then too. We could beat them, but we will have to contain Johnson.

As for OU I don't think we know whether they are elite or not. They also have a young, very talented qb in Jackson Arnold. Former five star kid w loads of talent and they've got plenty of talent around him and on defense. Would be a massive upset.

To the other games, we are also making a lot of assumptions that this team will be like 2022 when there is a ton of uncertainty about that. It's possible we could be that good and also very possible we are nowhere near that. Along with all the offensive transfers there's quite a bit of unknown on d too. I don't disagree that we should beat ULL but it will be in a weird location and they will be hungry to beat us. Clearly vegas thinks there's a chance we could lose that one or a similar conf game. And it's too far out to project what a usf line would look like but I will be surprised if we are a 2 score home favorite against them. That probably means we are humming and they've underachieved.

We will see! That's why off-season talk is fun
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by waverider »

We get ULL with them heading to Wake Forest the following week. I don’t think it has the same effect as it could with OU because ULL would likely be ok trading a win over us for a pay day loss.

ULL also has two tune up games before us, vs Grambling and at Kennesaw St.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

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doncecco wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 4:09 am New coach, new QB, a lot of new players - I can see where we win 8 games as we work through that. Frankly, if Sumrall wins more than 8, he would be better than advertised.
I'm the eternal pessimist (DC: "Everything is going so well, something bad has to happen!"), but I am going to go with Roller the eternal optimist: 13-0 until proven otherwise.......
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

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doncecco wrote: Wed May 15, 2024 4:06 am
waverider wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 6:19 pm
doncecco wrote: Tue May 14, 2024 6:09 pm We can beat K St - heck we beat them on the road when they nearly won the Big 12 Championship.
Narrator: They did indeed go on to win the Big 12 Championship that year
You know, I thought so, but then I thought of TCU beating Michigan and getting trounced by UGA in the CFP, and thought - TCU must have won. But I forget they let TCU in anyway, regrettably.
TCU deserved to be in the top 4, and anyone arguing they didn't is literally arguing for the same P2 bias we fight. Meanwhile, if it wasn't validated on the merit of the season, it was validated on ther merit of beating Michigan.

People are angry because they got a boring natty championship game to watch, but sometimes that happens.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

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tulaneoutlaw wrote: Wed May 15, 2024 6:06 am Yes, Avery Johnson is quite good. More of a runner than a thrower but cab do both. He is better that Adrian Martinez who we beat last time, plus they have a deeper stable of rbs than then too. We could beat them, but we will have to contain Johnson.
Avery Johnson is very very good. He is going to be a gigantic headache. Much more effective runner than Plumlee - as fast but more slippery. If you want to lose some sleep check out his FR year highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYn9jMXSNuI
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

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1401973 wrote: Wed May 15, 2024 11:27 am
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Wed May 15, 2024 6:06 am Yes, Avery Johnson is quite good. More of a runner than a thrower but cab do both. He is better that Adrian Martinez who we beat last time, plus they have a deeper stable of rbs than then too. We could beat them, but we will have to contain Johnson.
Avery Johnson is very very good. He is going to be a gigantic headache. Much more effective runner than Plumlee - as fast but more slippery. If you want to lose some sleep check out his FR year highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYn9jMXSNuI
The good news is that we will have those FR highlights to scout unlike the teams he made those highlights against.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

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1401973 wrote: Wed May 15, 2024 11:27 am
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Wed May 15, 2024 6:06 am Yes, Avery Johnson is quite good. More of a runner than a thrower but cab do both. He is better that Adrian Martinez who we beat last time, plus they have a deeper stable of rbs than then too. We could beat them, but we will have to contain Johnson.
Avery Johnson is very very good. He is going to be a gigantic headache. Much more effective runner than Plumlee - as fast but more slippery. If you want to lose some sleep check out his FR year highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYn9jMXSNuI
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

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If you want a proxy for how good K St. thinks Avery Johnson is, they let Will Howard walk in favor of Johnson. Howard is who Ohio St. brought in to ostensibly shepherd their stacked squad to a national title. Now I'm not saying Howard is a heisman candidate or anything, but he was plenty productive at K St. That Avery Johnson pushed him for the starting role and ultimately convinced K St to invest in him as the long term future speaks volumes to me.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

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That is true, but I think it also allowed KSU to be cheap as it would have expensive for them to retain him. I prefer playing the young qb to Howard. More opportunities to rattle him and him show his immaturity. Those of course could be famous last words


Obviously I can’t say with certainty we will win 7.5+, and outlaw as always has several good points. But what I think you’re overlooking is how bad our conference is now, and the divide between tiers of G5’s and also tiers of Power schools. My point being I think there’s a significant divide between Memphis, UTSA, USF & Tulane recruiting & NIL and the rest of the aac. I think that holds for the other conferences as well with some having more or less parity. But Nil is increasing the chasm and thankfully we are on the nice side of the g5 chasm. While their some coaching uncertainty, Sumrall is a known quantity. And a great coach bringing in good talent that is significantly better than 75% of our schedule makes me feel confident in 8+ wins barring significant injury.
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Re: Vegas puts Tulane's win total next year at . . .

Unread post by tulaneoutlaw »

nolasilver wrote: Wed May 15, 2024 3:02 pm That is true, but I think it also allowed KSU to be cheap as it would have expensive for them to retain him. I prefer playing the young qb to Howard. More opportunities to rattle him and him show his immaturity. Those of course could be famous last words


Obviously I can’t say with certainty we will win 7.5+, and outlaw as always has several good points. But what I think you’re overlooking is how bad our conference is now, and the divide between tiers of G5’s and also tiers of Power schools. My point being I think there’s a significant divide between Memphis, UTSA, USF & Tulane recruiting & NIL and the rest of the aac. I think that holds for the other conferences as well with some having more or less parity. But Nil is increasing the chasm and thankfully we are on the nice side of the g5 chasm. While their some coaching uncertainty, Sumrall is a known quantity. And a great coach bringing in good talent that is significantly better than 75% of our schedule makes me feel confident in 8+ wins barring significant injury.
I agree with the most of this I think. Our coaching staff and nil should bring major upside especially relative to most of our conference mates. I tend to agree too that our expectation should be 8+ with 9 more likely than 7. The big question is can we be elite, snagging 10+ wins and the conference title, or will we be merely good winning 8 or 9 but being an also ran like utsa and usf last year.

Probably the one thing I would quibble with is how cheap k st could be w Johnson. My understanding is that other p5s with deep pockets made runs at him making it unlikely their NIL could afford both him and Howard. They clearly think Johnson has the higher ceiling and so put their chips there which then meant letting Howard walk. Either way they were going to have to pay up to keep their guy
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