Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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PeteRasche
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Non-Tulane NCAA thread

Unread post by PeteRasche »

Week one had an individual thread but these don't normally get enough traffic to make one for each week so let's just have a single thread for the season.

Lots of crazy scores right now, but none finals so we'll wait to see if they stand. AAC not looking good but we'll leave that for the AAC forum thread. UNC squeaks by App State in OT. Several SEC teams barely winning over cupcakes midway through their games. And TAMU looks to maybe be a pretender again after losing badly to Miami. Iowa scores 20 in a win over ISU, putting their OC farther below the 25 ppg deadline. UConn getting stomped by Georgia State, 27-0 in late 3rd quarter.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Boise loses to UCF 18-16 on a last play field goal. 0-2.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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OGSB wrote: Sat Sep 09, 2023 9:20 pm Boise loses to UCF 18-16 on a last play field goal. 0-2.
(scratches Boise off "threat to Tulane's NY6 chances" list)
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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This another copy/paste, because I apparently can't read thread titles correctly on a Monday, and this probably belongs here....

Boise is 0-2. UTSA is 1-1 and we play them. The remaining undefeated G5 teams:

Memphis (AAC; we play them and they've only beaten very bad teams)
Liberty (CUSA; very weak schedule--us with one loss will get in over them)
Western Kentucky (CUSA; they play Ohio State this week--obviously if they pull that massive upset then worry, otherwise meh)
Fresno State (Mountain West; beat Purdue but needed 2 OTs to beat FCS Eastern Washington)
Air Force (Mountain West; barely beat a very bad Sam Houston State last weekend)
Wyoming (Mountain West; beat Texas Tech in 2OT; they play Texas this week and Appalachian State next. Root against them.)
ULM (Sun Belt; barely won games against Army and Lamar. Won't finish undefeated)
Marshall (Sun Belt; barely won their FCS team, destroyed a putrid ECU. Play Virginia Tech and NC State still. Root against them.)
James Madison (Sun Belt; beat UVa and FCS. Play Utah State and UConn OOC. I think 12-1 Tulane gets in over an undefeated JMU, but it's not a slam dunk; root against them)
Georgia State (Sun Belt; barely beat their FCS and blew out UConn. Weak OOC other than LoSer-U late; if they beat LoSer-U could pass us if undefeated, which I don't picture happening)
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt; beat the Citadel and UAB--play Wisconsin this weekend. Root against them)

That's the entire list. All of those teams either won't win out or have such a weak OOC schedule we would get in over them with one loss for sure. Wyoming probably worries me the most, if Texas has a letdown this week, and Marshall second. A lot of these teams have tests coming up Saturday. I still think we control our destiny for the Peach Bowl, but that will be a lot clearer a week from now.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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I saw some "updated after week 2" computer projection this morning that had Liberty expected to finish with either 11 or 12 wins. I checked their schedule and they should not be a threat regardless.

I agree, outside the AAC, Wyoming and Marshall are threats. But I expect both to lose one or two of their next few games.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Seeing Air Force beating up on Utah State tonight made me check their schedule... they play absolutely nobody, unless someone in the MWC breaks out and then AF beats them. Their toughest OOC is ironically from the AAC... but it's only Navy. Probably no reason to worry about them being in the NY6 chase.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Army is probably Air Force's toughest OOC. They just beat UTSA in SA. While the Roadrunners didn't have their QB, it should be noted that he doesn't play defense. UTSA might not be as good as people thought in preseason.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Marshall has VT, @NC State, @Coastal Carolina, @App State, and @South Alabama. I think they lose at least two of those. Would be nice for South Al to do us a solid...

Wyoming has @Texas today. They have App State next week and travel to Air Force and Boise on either side of a bye. I expect them to lose to Texas and at least one of the others.

So right now it looks like Air Force is the biggest threat, but ultimately we control our own destiny.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Sophandros wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 4:36 amSo right now it looks like Air Force is the biggest threat, but ultimately we control our own destiny.
I disagree (said so above) simply because they're not getting a NY6 bid on an Army win alone. There are a handful of G5 teams that have no significant OOC opponents (hi, Liberty) and they won't really have a chance, history has shown that. As we've seen, once G5 teams hit conference play, they "are where they are" in the polls and only climb based on teams losing ahead of them; and when those teams have 4 OOC cupcakes, they don't even get ranked before conference play. That results in them maybe creeping in around week 5 or 6, and probably barely cracking the Top 20 by season's end. If there's real chaos in the G5 NY6 race and no clear frontrunner, maybe they have a shot, but they'd be viewed as falling into it and would really need every other team to choke.

Several G5 teams saved their P5 games for these next 2 weeks. We'll see who the contenders are after that (Marshall being a perfect example).
Sophandros wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 4:26 amUTSA might not be as good as people thought in preseason.
Well, I mean, I've been saying they probably weren't good for a while... :mrgreen: :wink:
(I said back in like July that I thought they'd be nowhere near what some pundits were thinking)
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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If Air Force and Tulane run the table there will be some media chatter about a 13-0 Air Force vs a 12-1 Tulane for the G5 NY6 spot.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Sophandros wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 9:18 am If Air Force and Tulane run the table there will be some media chatter about a 13-0 Air Force vs a 12-1 Tulane for the G5 NY6 spot.
If they run the table they would get it and should. However them running the table is far less likely IMO. Anyone who stops slows or stops USAFA's running game has a good shot. They beat SHSU 13-3 last week while only getting 258 yard of offense and 1 pass completion.

Their schedule is weak. Army and Navy will be tough. SJSU, SDSU, Wyoming, and Boise will all challenge them. MWC has no possibly really good teams like Tulane, SMU, maybe Memphis, but has more decent middling teams than the AAC this year. The AAC is just weak in the lower 2/3. Not necessarily because of the additions, but so many teams have first year coaches its just a down year.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Poseidon wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 11:43 am
Sophandros wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 9:18 am If Air Force and Tulane run the table there will be some media chatter about a 13-0 Air Force vs a 12-1 Tulane for the G5 NY6 spot.
If they run the table they would get it and should. However them running the table is far less likely IMO. Anyone who stops slows or stops USAFA's running game has a good shot. They beat SHSU 13-3 last week while only getting 258 yard of offense and 1 pass completion.

Their schedule is weak. Army and Navy will be tough. SJSU, SDSU, Wyoming, and Boise will all challenge them. MWC has no possibly really good teams like Tulane, SMU, maybe Memphis, but has more decent middling teams than the AAC this year. The AAC is just weak in the lower 2/3. Not necessarily because of the additions, but so many teams have first year coaches its just a down year.
All of this.

If Tulane and AFA keep winning, which one jumps into the poll first? Tulane has votes (still) and a reputation that somehow grew in the public eye last week despite us falling out of the polls. AFA has no votes at all. If they get to 6-0 or so, voters will have to start paying attention (simply because the number of undefeated teams will be dwindling and more-easily countable), but by that point a 5-1 Tulane would either be back in the poll or very close. And once both teams were in the poll, they most likely are going to slide up and down without leapfrogging each other; it would likely take a big "style points" win for that to even have a chance. AFA has Boise at the end of the year so maybe if Boise was like 10-2 and AFA beat them, that could cause them to leap us, but at the same time, we have UTSA, who maybe could be 9-3 (maybe?) and help us.

All of that said, I agree with Poseidon, I don't see them going undefeated. Probably not even one loss. And I likewise don't see UTSA being 9-3.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Would FSU drop in polls if they beat BC by only 2?
(Can't figure out where to post this Q)
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Marathon Wave wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 2:34 pm Would FSU drop in polls if they beat BC by only 2?
(Can't figure out where to post this Q)
You mean "will?" 8) That is what happened.

Meanwhile, let the SEC gloating over the Big 12 get louder, as Missouri just beat #15 Kansas State...
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Georgia Southern, UConn, ULM, and WKU eliminated from the ranks of the unbeaten. UTSA with their second loss obviously out of NY6 talk, though if they beat Tennessee next week they could be back in it (Tennessee losing to Florida as of this post).
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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South Florida gave Bama a game today.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Our win over USA looks better and so far, Ole Miss is up 34-17 on Ga Tech.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Two coaches who needed big wins got them today. Billy Napier and UF whipped Tennessee and Eli Drinkwitz and Missouri best K-St at the gun. Drinkwitz isn’t on the hot seat lists like other guys but he needed a statement win at home. And Neal Brown is about to make it three and he really needs one.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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PeteRasche wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 6:09 am
Sophandros wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 4:36 amSo right now it looks like Air Force is the biggest threat, but ultimately we control our own destiny.
I disagree (said so above) simply because they're not getting a NY6 bid on an Army win alone. There are a handful of G5 teams that have no significant OOC opponents (hi, Liberty) and they won't really have a chance, history has shown that. As we've seen, once G5 teams hit conference play, they "are where they are" in the polls and only climb based on teams losing ahead of them; and when those teams have 4 OOC cupcakes, they don't even get ranked before conference play. That results in them maybe creeping in around week 5 or 6, and probably barely cracking the Top 20 by season's end. If there's real chaos in the G5 NY6 race and no clear frontrunner, maybe they have a shot, but they'd be viewed as falling into it and would really need every other team to choke.

Several G5 teams saved their P5 games for these next 2 weeks. We'll see who the contenders are after that (Marshall being a perfect example).
Sophandros wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 4:26 amUTSA might not be as good as people thought in preseason.
Well, I mean, I've been saying they probably weren't good for a while... :mrgreen: :wink:
(I said back in like July that I thought they'd be nowhere near what some pundits were thinking)
I'm thinking Fresno. They have manageable schedule. Did yall know that their QB is Mikey Keene who sat and watched the CCG last year?
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Yeah, right now they're probably tops outside the AAC. They (wisely?) scheduled and beat two very bad P5s (Purdue and Arizona State), but people will just see "P5" and be impressed.

This past week we got 17 votes and they got 2. I doubt ASU had enough juice to cause them to leap us, but we'll see.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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The flying Prime Times trail the Well-Mannered Conversationalists 21-14 at the half.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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28-20, CSU halfway through the 4th. Come on, Rams.

Colorado ties it up on 99 yard drive with a two point conversion. Yikes.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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Colorado intercepted a pass in the end zone on 4th and goal on the second OT to win it.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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After this weekend, I think Marshall has the best chance to catch us *if* they run the table (which I don't see happening; NC State would potentially be a chance at a decent P5 win, depending upon how the next few weeks go (they also get Virginia Tech this weekend, who isn't good and if they lose mark them off)). Air Force and Fresno also have a shot, but I don't think either will run the table; both have had games where they struggled against bad teams.

As far as actual quality of team goes, I am very grateful Texas padded the score late against Wyoming; they look the most legitimate of the bunch outside of us with a healthy Pratt.
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Re: Non-Tulane NCAA thread

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PeteRasche wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 12:34 pm
Poseidon wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 11:43 am
Sophandros wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 9:18 am If Air Force and Tulane run the table there will be some media chatter about a 13-0 Air Force vs a 12-1 Tulane for the G5 NY6 spot.
If they run the table they would get it and should. However them running the table is far less likely IMO. Anyone who stops slows or stops USAFA's running game has a good shot. They beat SHSU 13-3 last week while only getting 258 yard of offense and 1 pass completion.

Their schedule is weak. Army and Navy will be tough. SJSU, SDSU, Wyoming, and Boise will all challenge them. MWC has no possibly really good teams like Tulane, SMU, maybe Memphis, but has more decent middling teams than the AAC this year. The AAC is just weak in the lower 2/3. Not necessarily because of the additions, but so many teams have first year coaches its just a down year.
All of this.

If Tulane and AFA keep winning, which one jumps into the poll first? Tulane has votes (still) and a reputation that somehow grew in the public eye last week despite us falling out of the polls. AFA has no votes at all. If they get to 6-0 or so, voters will have to start paying attention (simply because the number of undefeated teams will be dwindling and more-easily countable), but by that point a 5-1 Tulane would either be back in the poll or very close. And once both teams were in the poll, they most likely are going to slide up and down without leapfrogging each other; it would likely take a big "style points" win for that to even have a chance. AFA has Boise at the end of the year so maybe if Boise was like 10-2 and AFA beat them, that could cause them to leap us, but at the same time, we have UTSA, who maybe could be 9-3 (maybe?) and help us.

All of that said, I agree with Poseidon, I don't see them going undefeated. Probably not even one loss. And I likewise don't see UTSA being 9-3.
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