Wave chances for Playoff

[tulaneoutlaw]

So far I think there are five G5 teams with P4 wins, with very few opportunities left to add to the list (unless you want to count MWC opportunities against Oregon St. and Wazzou, which I do not). If I missed one, let me know.

NIU over ND
Toledo over Miss St.
Memphis over FSU
UNLV over Kansas
Georgia St. over Vandy

Of those wins, only ND looks to be any good. Vandy did beat VT, but I doubt they win more than two more games the rest of the way, if that. Miss St. may not win again this year. FSU and Kansas may still scrape together and make a bowl, but they haven't looked great.

We also know one of Toledo and NIU can't get in because they can't both win the MAC. For now, we want Memphis to run the table and look good doing it while UNLV and Toledo take losses. I am not worried in any way about NIU and Georgia St. who will both lose multiple times. Liberty is the other issue, but I'm hopeful ECU or App can take them out. One loss and they are completely done I think.

[tjtlja]

I think it will be a tight race between Memphis, Boise, UNLV, Toledo, and N. Illinois for the G5 slot. Really been impressed with UNLV. Very physical on both sides of the ball.

So based on Tulane losing tight games to top 20 teams, and on Memphis beating a horrible FSU team, you've written Tulane off as going to lose the AAC to them, huh? Because by including them in the list and not us, that's what you're saying: we're going to lose to Memphis. You know there's still 75% of the season left, right?

As for the other four, they are clearly ahead of us right now and all we can do is hope they lose. But if they all lose even once, we're in the picture.

Yes, I have written us off. Now hang me.

I have said it multi-times since Saturday that our inexperience at QB, our inability to rush the passer, the talent we are missing (Dean, Cooper, Machado, Webb), and now an ailing PK will lead to not only one more loss but probably more. That is my opinion and I hope I am wrong and the you can tell me told you so over and over. There are way too many toss up games with the remaining teams on our schedule that I just don’t see a double digit win season in the cards with two losses on Sept. 16th.

[nolasilver]

You realize that two losses were always the most likely scenario and what was predicted by pretty much every pundit ? Those aren’t even bad losses as they are both Top 15 teams (not even top 20 teams) and we had chances with the ball to win the game late in the 4th quarter in both games. We even outgained KSU and dominated the TOP. Those things will all help us when the CFP committee has to make the tough decisions.

NIU is playing NC state and I expect them to get spanked. Toledo has a few tough games in conference and then they play NIU and then also have their CCG. That is several likely games for each to take losses. NIU is going to lose to NC State and tumble behind Boise/Memphis etc in the polls.


UNLV (with their wins over houston and Kansas) also have a game against Syracuse in a couple weeks (in addition to match ups with Fresno State, Boise, OSU & SDSU). They have a challenging slate but not insurmountable. I think it’s likely they drop 2 or more, but props to them if they win all those games and drop 1 or less. It’s a fun exercise in playing middling/bad P5’s and challenging G5’s and seeing how much the CFP respects that.

[PeteRasche]

UNLV has an impressive schedule (for a G5) with three P4 teams plus Oregon State. I wonder how long ago that came to be (other than OSU), because it's pretty bold to schedule three especially if it was before they recently "got good". Of course it's probably easier for them to get deals when teams want a trip to Vegas.

[tjtlja]

You realize that two losses were always the most likely scenario and what was predicted by pretty much every pundit ? Those aren’t even bad losses as they are both Top 15 teams (not even top 20 teams) and we had chances with the ball to win the game late in the 4th quarter in both games. We even outgained KSU and dominated the TOP. Those things will all help us when the CFP committee has to make the tough decisions.

NIU is playing NC state and I expect them to get spanked. Toledo has a few tough games in conference and then they play NIU and then also have their CCG. That is several likely games for each to take losses. NIU is going to lose to NC State and tumble behind Boise/Memphis etc in the polls.


UNLV (with their wins over houston and Kansas) also have a game against Syracuse in a couple weeks (in addition to match ups with Fresno State, Boise, OSU & SDSU). They have a challenging slate but not insurmountable. I think it’s likely they drop 2 or more, but props to them if they win all those games and drop 1 or less. It’s a fun exercise in playing middling/bad P5’s and challenging G5’s and seeing how much the CFP respects that.

This is all very nice assuming we run the table. I don’t see that happening.

[tulaneoutlaw]

UNLV (with their wins over houston and Kansas) also have a game against Syracuse in a couple weeks (in addition to match ups with Fresno State, Boise, OSU & SDSU). They have a challenging slate but not insurmountable. I think it’s likely they drop 2 or more, but props to them if they win all those games and drop 1 or less. It’s a fun exercise in playing middling/bad P5’s and challenging G5’s and seeing how much the CFP respects that.

I forgot they also beat Houston. So while neither team may end being very good, that does give them 2 P4 wins. Would be nice for them to lose to Cuse and pick up another loss or two somewhere. I don't think Sluka is as good as Maiava was, so his limitations may cost them at some point.

[Poseidon]

UNLV has an impressive schedule (for a G5) with three P4 teams plus Oregon State. I wonder how long ago that came to be (other than OSU), because it's pretty bold to schedule three especially if it was before they recently "got good". Of course it's probably easier for them to get deals when teams want a trip to Vegas.

For now my #fandom goes to Wazzou. They have beat Texas Tech and Washington. If they go undefeated an soak up an at large spot that would be awesome.

[tjtlja]

UNLV has an impressive schedule (for a G5) with three P4 teams plus Oregon State. I wonder how long ago that came to be (other than OSU), because it's pretty bold to schedule three especially if it was before they recently "got good". Of course it's probably easier for them to get deals when teams want a trip to Vegas. :mrgreen:

For now my #fandom goes to Wazzou. They have beat Texas Tech and Washington. If they go undefeated an soak up an at large spot that would be awesome.

Very good point. Because they are not part of G5, can they earn an automatic spot given they are still in P-12?

[Poseidon]

UNLV has an impressive schedule (for a G5) with three P4 teams plus Oregon State. I wonder how long ago that came to be (other than OSU), because it's pretty bold to schedule three especially if it was before they recently "got good". Of course it's probably easier for them to get deals when teams want a trip to Vegas.

For now my #fandom goes to Wazzou. They have beat Texas Tech and Washington. If they go undefeated an soak up an at large spot that would be awesome.

Very good point. Because they are not part of G5, can they earn an automatic spot given they are still in P-12?

They are eligible for sn at large spot.

[waverider]

App St is looking to further themselves from the CFP contention. They completed a Hail Mary to cut the halftime lead to 28-7 for USA.

USA scored 87 last week and may have a legitimate shot to beat lsu next week.

[PeteRasche]

App St is looking to further themselves from the CFP contention. They completed a Hail Mary to cut the halftime lead to 28-7 for USA.

USA scored 87 last week and may have a legitimate shot to beat lsu next week.

Um ... USA lost in week one to Ohio University, let's not get too excited. And they scored 87 against a horrible FCS team. As in, they're horrible even in FCS

That said, we'd all very much enjoy if they beat LSU.

[Poseidon]

App St is looking to further themselves from the CFP contention. They completed a Hail Mary to cut the halftime lead to 28-7 for USA.

USA scored 87 last week and may have a legitimate shot to beat lsu next week.

Um ... USA lost in week one to Ohio University, let's not get too excited. And they scored 87 against a horrible FCS team. As in, they're horrible even in FCS

That said, we'd all very much enjoy if they beat LSU.

They might have a better shot than UCLA...

[nolasilver]

USA completes the beatdown, 48-14 over app state. Here’s hoping app state beats liberty and a bunch of in conference teams.

[PeteRasche]

Pretty much all of America outside of Liberty alumni is rooting for ECU this weekend.

Also keeping an eye on UNC vs. James Madison. How will JMU fare against a respectable but not super-powerful P4?

[ml wave]

Pretty much all of America outside of Liberty alumni is rooting for ECU this weekend.

Also keeping an eye on UNC vs. James Madison. How will JMU fare against a respectable but not super-powerful P4?

ECU's star CB out with a torn ACL.

[Poseidon]

Pretty much all of America outside of Liberty alumni is rooting for ECU this weekend.

Also keeping an eye on UNC vs. James Madison. How will JMU fare against a respectable but not super-powerful P4?

They have a notable downgrade in coaching this year IMO.

[waverider]

Pretty much all of America outside of Liberty alumni is rooting for ECU this weekend.

Also keeping an eye on UNC vs. James Madison. How will JMU fare against a respectable but not super-powerful P4?

They have a notable downgrade in coaching this year IMO.

I haven’t heard JMU mentioned at all when talking g5 playoff potential.

[nolasilver]

The sunbelt seems down a bit in general

[PeteRasche]

Pretty much all of America outside of Liberty alumni is rooting for ECU this weekend.

Also keeping an eye on UNC vs. James Madison. How will JMU fare against a respectable but not super-powerful P4?

They have a notable downgrade in coaching this year IMO.

I haven’t heard JMU mentioned at all when talking g5 playoff potential.

Agree, but they're undefeated. If they beat UNC they'll be right there. If not, we probably won't hear from them again.

[nolasilver]

Jmu is up on unc in the first half, 32-21 jmu. Looks like unc is coming back

[WaveProf]

Jmu is up on unc in the first half, 32-21 jmu. Looks like unc is coming back

46-21 just before half

[waverider]

Jmu is up on unc in the first half, 32-21 jmu. Looks like unc is coming back

46-21 just before half

Now 53-21 with a minute or so left in the half. They scored a 64yd TD to make it 25-14 then recovered an onside kick.

[PeteRasche]

Seems reports that JMU was not a contender are getting a big fat Lee Corso.

[tulaneoutlaw]

Seems reports that JMU was not a contender are getting a big fat Lee Corso.

Or north carolina isn't any good. Let's wait and see. Maybe the belt won't have much for them but I'm not going to believe it until I see it.

[Sophandros]

Navy is up 35-17 over Memphis with about 11 minutes left in the 3rd.