I don't smoke but I'd love a little of what you're drinking, Bay.
There's no way in hell the next AAC contract pays remotely close to the $7+M we're getting. Heck, the added-from-CUSA teams aren't even getting what we're getting; a clear harbinger of the contract to come. I'd bet the next AAC contract will be less than half of what we're getting now per school. Feel free to call me out someday if I end up being wrong, but I'm praying we're not still around to find out the hard way.
There's also no way that a cobbled together newPAC with MWC and AAC teams along with the PAC2 gets even remotely close to the Big 12 deal. The conference certainly won't be considered "P". I'd bet it gets no sniffs from ESPN either. ESPN is focusing on SEC (and is stuck with the ACC until it breaks) and they consider everything else meaningless time-slot-fillers; they aren't going to have any interest in paying big money to a conference that would be clearly fifth (they already had that for a few years, the AAC, and they're paying us $7+M). I'm also betting Fox won't offer much, as they're focusing on the Big 10 & 12. If I was told that new PAC was forming and was forced to wager on what their deal will be, I'd bet it's gonna be a third party and it's gonna be in the $13 to $17M range per school, at absolute most. The question is whether it will be Apple or Amazon, or whether an established network like CBS or NBC will make that leap. I'd almost prefer the former (streaming only) these days.
Pete, the AAC contract expires in about eight years. Remember by extending it, ESPN did not cut the value two years ago even though UCF/UH/UC were replaced with six less attractive schools. So it wasn’t even cut then
Live sports and news are the most watched programs today. I doubt that changes. Advertisers need to reach their audience so broadcasters/cable cos/streamers are all bidding up every sports property available.
For new contract in 2032(?) AAC will get more money than current one. I don’t know why this is controversial. Issue is P2 value will probably grow even more and the gap will increase
Baywave1 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2024 11:07 pm
Pete, the AAC contract expires in about eight years. Remember by extending it, ESPN did not cut the value two years ago even though UCF/UH/UC were replaced with six less attractive schools. So it wasn’t even cut then
Live sports and news are the most watched programs today. I doubt that changes. Advertisers need to reach their audience so broadcasters/cable cos/streamers are all bidding up every sports property available.
For new contract in 2032(?) AAC will get more money than current one. I don’t know why this is controversial. Issue is P2 value will probably grow even more and the gap will increase
They didn't cut the aggregate value (did they have the right to?), but they didn't increase it either even though three left and six joined...so the average payout per school was indeed cut.
Baywave1 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2024 11:07 pm
Pete, the AAC contract expires in about eight years. Remember by extending it, ESPN did not cut the value two years ago even though UCF/UH/UC were replaced with six less attractive schools. So it wasn’t even cut then
Live sports and news are the most watched programs today. I doubt that changes. Advertisers need to reach their audience so broadcasters/cable cos/streamers are all bidding up every sports property available.
For new contract in 2032(?) AAC will get more money than current one. I don’t know why this is controversial. Issue is P2 value will probably grow even more and the gap will increase
They didn't cut the aggregate value (did they have the right to?), but they didn't increase it either even though three left and six joined...so the average payout per school was indeed cut.
Have to remember those new schools got significantly less because they didn’t have the value the outgoing teams had. I don’t know if their value will be much higher when the renewal time comes.
Tulane Greenbackers
"If you want to win you have to have good players." Vince Gibson
Well SMU's entry into the ACC paid dividends in spite of its deal with the ACC. From the ACC media day coverage I learned that SMU is in it to win. Donors coughed up $139M as a result of the upgrade. Oil money wins again.
Baywave1 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2024 2:14 pm
Why? Sports media rights are exploding. TNT just signed contract to be THIRD broadcast partner of MWC athletic events.
AAC seven or eight years from now will certainly get more dollars on a gross basis and probably inflation adjusted as well.
Point is though it will still most likely be dwarfed by P2 media revenue.
Tulane needs to get promoted conference wise as soon as it can. However it is not necessary to oversell it by bizarrely underestimating AAC market value.
Tulane’s problem is the revenue gap with its peers and that could easily get worse
It's not gross revenue that matters, it's comparative revenue. The AAC won't be getting more than what the PAC-2 could put together, and there's a real chance that the MWC and even Sun Belt get better deals. While the revenue gap from ACC/BIG12 (which is also large and daunting, even aside from P2) is real and we should move up ASAP, the problem is that the AAC is by no objective measure any longer the clearly class of the G5/6/whatever, and there's a very good possibility that their relative revenue will suffer for it, even if the actual dollar amount remains around the same (which I really don't think it will).
PeteRasche wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2024 8:52 pm
I don't smoke but I'd love a little of what you're drinking, Bay.
There's no way in hell the next AAC contract pays remotely close to the $7+M we're getting. Heck, the added-from-CUSA teams aren't even getting what we're getting; a clear harbinger of the contract to come. I'd bet the next AAC contract will be less than half of what we're getting now per school. Feel free to call me out someday if I end up being wrong, but I'm praying we're not still around to find out the hard way.
There's also no way that a cobbled together newPAC with MWC and AAC teams along with the PAC2 gets even remotely close to the Big 12 deal. The conference certainly won't be considered "P". I'd bet it gets no sniffs from ESPN either. ESPN is focusing on SEC (and is stuck with the ACC until it breaks) and they consider everything else meaningless time-slot-fillers; they aren't going to have any interest in paying big money to a conference that would be clearly fifth (they already had that for a few years, the AAC, and they're paying us $7+M). I'm also betting Fox won't offer much, as they're focusing on the Big 10 & 12. If I was told that new PAC was forming and was forced to wager on what their deal will be, I'd bet it's gonna be a third party and it's gonna be in the $13 to $17M range per school, at absolute most. The question is whether it will be Apple or Amazon, or whether an established network like CBS or NBC will make that leap. I'd almost prefer the former (streaming only) these days.
To be clear, I don't think the new PAC would be a P5 with the ACC and Big 12. It would take the spot formerly held by the AAC as the lead G5, which is better than what the current AAC is trending to be.
Baywave1 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2024 11:07 pm
Pete, the AAC contract expires in about eight years. Remember by extending it, ESPN did not cut the value two years ago even though UCF/UH/UC were replaced with six less attractive schools. So it wasn’t even cut then
Live sports and news are the most watched programs today. I doubt that changes. Advertisers need to reach their audience so broadcasters/cable cos/streamers are all bidding up every sports property available.
For new contract in 2032(?) AAC will get more money than current one. I don’t know why this is controversial. Issue is P2 value will probably grow even more and the gap will increase
In the same sentence, you say it expires in 8 years and that ESPN "did not cut the value" two years ago. Thus, the contract gives them the power to do so if there's further movement, which is almost a certainty, even if there aren't other outs (which there likely are). I guarantee you Memphis and UTSA would be gone for a new PAC in a heartbeat, while still lobbying/working towards a Big 12 or ACC invite down the road. Yes, we would need to have some credible numbers to have confidence this new conference would get a better deal, or even maintain a current AAC level deal, but those market forces that want content would value the new PAC less than the ACC/BIG12, but more than any other G5.
A year ago at this time I thought we had a real shot at joining the ACC. How times have changed. Players compensated by the school, increased football scholarships from 85 to 105, NIL (Ohio State spent $30M this past year), Title 9, etc., Given all the changes, I don’t see Tulane anywhere but the AAC. The P4 is strangling us to death. Absent a playoff appearance this season, or a tremendous shift by Gibson Hall, or a whale coming out of the dust, we may be looking at the last season we ever have a collection of the type of athletic talent we have now in football.
Just wondering if you’ll think there has been a shift in us ever joining the ACC from last year to this year?
Here is an article mentioning Tulane to the B1G and ACC. I highly doubt Tulane would ever sniff the B1g, but here is a positive article for you (that links to several others mentioning Tulane).
Is Tulane in dialogue with various P4’s? Sure. But to get in one, knocking on the door won’t do, it will have to kick it in. Tulane will have to make CFP and ideally make a run(s) in it. Redo what Miami did thirty years ago
tjtlja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 7:21 pmA year ago at this time I thought we had a real shot at joining the ACC. How times have changed. Players compensated by the school, increased football scholarships from 85 to 105, NIL (Ohio State spent $30M this past year), Title 9, etc., Given all the changes, I don’t see Tulane anywhere but the AAC. The P4 is strangling us to death. Absent a playoff appearance this season, or a tremendous shift by Gibson Hall, or a whale coming out of the dust, we may be looking at the last season we ever have a collection of the type of athletic talent we have now in football.
Just wondering if you’ll think there has been a shift in us ever joining the ACC from last year to this year?
No, it's the same as it was--all dependent on Florida State, Clemson and company. If there's spots, it's who's the best alternative, not who's the best overall.
Also, comparing to Ohio State isn't the right metric. The B1G has a bunch of schools that also aren't in the same time zone money-wise, and similarly either no one or almost no one in the ACC is. No P4 add has been at that level, ever, even counting the PAC evacuees (with the admitted major exception of Oregon). We don't need to be Ohio State, or even Northwestern. We have to be Wake Forest or Georgia Tech. While that would involve spending more, it also involves having more income both directly and indirectly. Don't get so depressed you set up impossible analogies, which you do tend to do.
tjtlja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 7:21 pmA year ago at this time I thought we had a real shot at joining the ACC. How times have changed. Players compensated by the school, increased football scholarships from 85 to 105, NIL (Ohio State spent $30M this past year), Title 9, etc., Given all the changes, I don’t see Tulane anywhere but the AAC. The P4 is strangling us to death. Absent a playoff appearance this season, or a tremendous shift by Gibson Hall, or a whale coming out of the dust, we may be looking at the last season we ever have a collection of the type of athletic talent we have now in football.
Just wondering if you’ll think there has been a shift in us ever joining the ACC from last year to this year?
No, it's the same as it was--all dependent on Florida State, Clemson and company. If there's spots, it's who's the best alternative, not who's the best overall.
Also, comparing to Ohio State isn't the right metric. The B1G has a bunch of schools that also aren't in the same time zone money-wise, and similarly either no one or almost no one in the ACC is. No P4 add has been at that level, ever, even counting the PAC evacuees (with the admitted major exception of Oregon). We don't need to be Ohio State, or even Northwestern. We have to be Wake Forest or Georgia Tech. While that would involve spending more, it also involves having more income both directly and indirectly. Don't get so depressed you set up impossible analogies, which you do tend to do.
There's a good chance that schools like Wake, Northwestern, Georgia Tech, etc. will be forced into a conference with us after all this stuff is settled.
Sports Talk radio and most sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.
tjtlja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 7:21 pmA year ago at this time I thought we had a real shot at joining the ACC. How times have changed. Players compensated by the school, increased football scholarships from 85 to 105, NIL (Ohio State spent $30M this past year), Title 9, etc., Given all the changes, I don’t see Tulane anywhere but the AAC. The P4 is strangling us to death. Absent a playoff appearance this season, or a tremendous shift by Gibson Hall, or a whale coming out of the dust, we may be looking at the last season we ever have a collection of the type of athletic talent we have now in football.
Just wondering if you’ll think there has been a shift in us ever joining the ACC from last year to this year?
No, it's the same as it was--all dependent on Florida State, Clemson and company. If there's spots, it's who's the best alternative, not who's the best overall.
Also, comparing to Ohio State isn't the right metric. The B1G has a bunch of schools that also aren't in the same time zone money-wise, and similarly either no one or almost no one in the ACC is. No P4 add has been at that level, ever, even counting the PAC evacuees (with the admitted major exception of Oregon). We don't need to be Ohio State, or even Northwestern. We have to be Wake Forest or Georgia Tech. While that would involve spending more, it also involves having more income both directly and indirectly. Don't get so depressed you set up impossible analogies, which you do tend to do.
There's a good chance that schools like Wake, Northwestern, Georgia Tech, etc. will be forced into a conference with us after all this stuff is settled.
nolasilver wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 6:45 am
:roll: Here is an article mentioning Tulane to the B1G and ACC. I highly doubt Tulane would ever sniff the B1g, but here is a positive article for you (that links to several others mentioning Tulane).
tjtlja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 7:21 pmA year ago at this time I thought we had a real shot at joining the ACC. How times have changed. Players compensated by the school, increased football scholarships from 85 to 105, NIL (Ohio State spent $30M this past year), Title 9, etc., Given all the changes, I don’t see Tulane anywhere but the AAC. The P4 is strangling us to death. Absent a playoff appearance this season, or a tremendous shift by Gibson Hall, or a whale coming out of the dust, we may be looking at the last season we ever have a collection of the type of athletic talent we have now in football.
Just wondering if you’ll think there has been a shift in us ever joining the ACC from last year to this year?
No, it's the same as it was--all dependent on Florida State, Clemson and company. If there's spots, it's who's the best alternative, not who's the best overall.
Also, comparing to Ohio State isn't the right metric. The B1G has a bunch of schools that also aren't in the same time zone money-wise, and similarly either no one or almost no one in the ACC is. No P4 add has been at that level, ever, even counting the PAC evacuees (with the admitted major exception of Oregon). We don't need to be Ohio State, or even Northwestern. We have to be Wake Forest or Georgia Tech. While that would involve spending more, it also involves having more income both directly and indirectly. Don't get so depressed you set up impossible analogies, which you do tend to do.
I wasn’t trying to make analogy. I was just pointing out the type of money that is being spent now. That’s all. I should have never asked the question because an answer requires being depressed on my end. That is so stupid.
tjtlja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 7:21 pmA year ago at this time I thought we had a real shot at joining the ACC. How times have changed. Players compensated by the school, increased football scholarships from 85 to 105, NIL (Ohio State spent $30M this past year), Title 9, etc., Given all the changes, I don’t see Tulane anywhere but the AAC. The P4 is strangling us to death. Absent a playoff appearance this season, or a tremendous shift by Gibson Hall, or a whale coming out of the dust, we may be looking at the last season we ever have a collection of the type of athletic talent we have now in football.
Just wondering if you’ll think there has been a shift in us ever joining the ACC from last year to this year?
No, it's the same as it was--all dependent on Florida State, Clemson and company. If there's spots, it's who's the best alternative, not who's the best overall.
Also, comparing to Ohio State isn't the right metric. The B1G has a bunch of schools that also aren't in the same time zone money-wise, and similarly either no one or almost no one in the ACC is. No P4 add has been at that level, ever, even counting the PAC evacuees (with the admitted major exception of Oregon). We don't need to be Ohio State, or even Northwestern. We have to be Wake Forest or Georgia Tech. While that would involve spending more, it also involves having more income both directly and indirectly. Don't get so depressed you set up impossible analogies, which you do tend to do.
I wasn’t trying to make analogy. I was just pointing out the type of money that is being spent now. That’s all. I should have never asked the question because an answer requires being depressed on my end. That is so stupid.
But his point is literally that it's only being spent by a very few, and even most of their own conference-mates aren't doing it. There isn't going to be a break-off of like 6-8 teams who are spending like that, and frankly those schools have been spending like that (in other ways) for a while, often without noticeably different results than schools who aren't. Did you notice that Ohio State is outspending much of college football but hasn't made the CFP since NIL was instituted? (small sample size but still)
All sorts of random chatter on internet about various realignment conversations. Several specifically speculated that it is cheaper for ESPN to poach its own ACC property and send certain high value members to Big 12.
Perhaps true as concerns annual core network media values.
However Big 12 house drummers totally ignore the inherent value of ESPN co-owned ACC Network. If ESPN doesn’t extend in 2026 then the market worth of ACCN probably crashes.
FSU, et al could win litigation and/or settle favorably and ultimately land in Big 12. I just don’t see ESPN enabling ACC departers to save dimes and quarters while losing dollars torpedoing its ACCN asset.
Baywave1 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 3:46 pm
All sorts of random chatter on internet about various realignment conversations. Several specifically speculated that it is cheaper for ESPN to poach its own ACC property and send certain high value members to Big 12.
Perhaps true as concerns annual core network media values.
However Big 12 house drummers totally ignore the inherent value of ESPN co-owned ACC Network. If ESPN doesn’t extend in 2026 then the market worth of ACCN probably crashes.
FSU, et al could win litigation and/or settle favorably and ultimately land in Big 12. I just don’t see ESPN enabling ACC departers to save dimes and quarters while losing dollars torpedoing its ACCN asset.
Smoke about the Big 12 changing their minds a year later and inviting the PAC 2 to join, with some baloney about they'd have to also add two teams east of the Mississippi River. Same guy who claimed to know everything last year about the PAC and Big 12 and ended up being completely wrong on everything (MHver), so I wouldn't get too excited. Pretty sure the dude just posts theories (as facts) that he knows will excite fanbases and therefore get lots of likes and shares.
Yeah he is one but it’s coming from Swaim too, another Big 12 echo chamber. These folks believe that a social media stampede demolished PAC 12 to B12 benefit so they are singing same hymnal this year.
I am sure everyone is having discussions with everyone including Tulane about everything.
I won’t predict who or what is next. Six ACC teams may very well end up in B12. However it won’t be because ESPN incentivized them to move. That’s what I was calling BS on the B12 chorines about.
One west coast PAC-whatever reporter calls it “Expectations of Impending Dominoes.” That’s about the weaseliest language imaginable especially from a “disinterested” professional journalist. In ten days or ten years?
