ARE WE BACK?

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ARE WE BACK

Poll ended at Tue May 28, 2024 2:53 pm

YEAH
17
59%
NO
12
41%
 
Total votes: 29

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1309th WAVE
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ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by 1309th WAVE »

WELL? CONSIDER THE QUESTION.

Tulane baseball is making back to back regional appearances for the first time since 2015-16. With the circumstances being what they are... would you consider the program to be "back"?
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long green
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by long green »

Uhlman earned another year going into this year’s tournament. We’re not “back,” but we’re getting there.
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Roller
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by Roller »

long green wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 2:58 pm Uhlman earned another year going into this year’s tournament. We’re not “back,” but we’re getting there.
It's like crossing a stream on a line of rocks. We're still not to the opposite shore, but our feet remain dry. Let's just step one rock at a time, and we're going to get there...
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QuarterbackU
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by QuarterbackU »

I want to win at least one Regional Game this trip.

Unfinished business to prove we’re a good team by beating another nationally recognized good team in a big time moment.

I was with Coach Jones one day and some casual campus employee came up and congratulated him on beating Big LSU midweek the day before and Jones undressed the guy that we have bigger things we celebrate than a midweek win against a team he has a winning record against.

We need that mind set back.
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1309th WAVE
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by 1309th WAVE »

My serious answer is a good bit of above. Not actually back but certainly looking like we could be looking the part... eventually.

I don't see how they'll justify it (through my green goggles) but this team should not be a 4 seed. If we are... good luck to that host
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Marathon Wave
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by Marathon Wave »

Not back.
Not yet.
But very close. Team is definitely going in the right direction. Let's make some noise in the regional.
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Sophandros
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by Sophandros »

Sports Talk radio and most sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.
tjtlja
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by tjtlja »

Not yet. RPI tells you that right away. Hopefully we can hang on to several position players. Our pitching has to take that jump next year to really get back. Welch is as close as we have to an ace.

More importantly to me, is the talent did improve a lot from year 1 to year 2. No matter what happened today, the season was a success. Going back to a regional is a blessing. And let’s hope we can continue to add talent. They are going to have to get very creative with the money.
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by waverider »

I wouldn’t say that we are back, but I would say we have improved each of the past two seasons and have something in place to build on.
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PeteRasche
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by PeteRasche »

tjtlja wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 4:50 pm Not yet. RPI tells you that right away.
Oh, that wonderful metric that puts all the P4 teams waaaaaaay up high even if they suck, because they all play each other in conference play and just buoy themselves? Use the RPI for tourney seeding because, unfortunately, that is the metric that they use. So, yeah, that sucks.

This is a fuzzy question because it depends how you define "back". If "back" means better than many teams out there, it's much more likely than if you define "back" as "nationally relevant". To be nationally relevant now (vs. 2005), we have to fight the P4 bias, and that bias is extraordinarily worse than it was 20 years ago (see first paragraph above).

But if we're talking "back" in terms of "how good are we actually", there are probably 30+ teams (maybe more) with higher RPIs that we are actually better than. Yes, even with our wildly inconsistent pitching staff. Those other teams have much higher RPI simply by playing in their leagues, but that doesn't make us that much farther from being a good program; if we were able to play them next year OOC we would likely beat them. Obviously we can only play so many teams in OOC and a lot of P4 teams don't want to play us because they have everything to lose and nothing to gain.

Keep up the postseason appearances, win a few game in the tourney, parlay that into pitching recruiting, and keep getting better.
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OGSB
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by OGSB »

We’re “back” when the outcome of games like today only matter for seeding in the regional.
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by GSx »

PeteRasche wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 5:10 pm
tjtlja wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 4:50 pm Not yet. RPI tells you that right away.
Oh, that wonderful metric that puts all the P4 teams waaaaaaay up high even if they suck, because they all play each other in conference play and just buoy themselves? Use the RPI for tourney seeding because, unfortunately, that is the metric that they use. So, yeah, that sucks.
And on the non P5 absurdity of it, look at Nichols. They are 34 -20. They are 1-11 against Q1 and Q2.
We are 35-24, and 7-8 v. Q1 and Q2.
Nichols' RPI is 30 points higher than ours.

As for whether we are back, well no. Our RPI is 90ish; using the ELO it's 60ish. We scuffled around with walks, errors and hbps during much of the first half of the season. That ain't back.
WE won 2 conference tourneys; the conference is weak. and we got favorable draws both years avoiding the dominant team. Wichita had to play the #1 3 times and the #3 once. We played the #4 once and also-rans the rest of the way.
Get the RPI backRPI 30-40 is back to where we were in the Pierce era.

But we certainly are improving.
Last edited by GSx on Sun May 26, 2024 6:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Charlie Dunn
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by Charlie Dunn »

That is crazy about Nichols. I think it's ridiculous the SEC is getting 11 teams in. Give me a break. You should at least have to have a winning conference record to get in (unless you win the conference tourney).
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PeteRasche
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by PeteRasche »

Makes you wonder where our RPI would be if we still played LSU twice. Who cares about the game outcomes, by God, they played SEC power LSU twice! Bump that number a good 40 spots!
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1309th WAVE
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by 1309th WAVE »

Nicholls won a lot of home games. RPI dings you a lot for losing at home.

I'll miss obsessing over it but I'll be glad to see the committee transition to a more common sense(?) NET style ranking. Until it leaks that run differential is a big part of the calculation and teams start swinging from the heels during 15-0 wins in February to pad the stat.
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tjtlja
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by tjtlja »

I hate the SEC as much as anyone here, but they deserve 11 teams in the tournament. They are by far the best conference in baseball and they have the facts to back it up. There are more than 75 players from the SEC playing in the MLB currently. They have won 6 of the last 8 World Series. The talent cannot be denied. The depth of pitching is ridiculous. And the support is unmatched.
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by visualmagic »

tjtlja wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 11:30 pm I hate the SEC as much as anyone here, but they deserve 11 teams in the tournament. They are by far the best conference in baseball and they have the facts to back it up. There are more than 75 players from the SEC playing in the MLB currently. They have won 6 of the last 8 World Series. The talent cannot be denied. The depth of pitching is ridiculous. And the support is unmatched.
Agreed.


As to the original question. We’re definitely going in the right direction but I’d echo what others have said, I’d like to see an at-large bid or at least see us on the bubble for one first. Winning the conference tournament is great but a better mark of a good team is when the whole body of work shows that you belong in the NCAA Regional
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PeteRasche
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by PeteRasche »

It seems pretty clear from the analysis here that literally the only way to "be back" has to start with scheduling. Rather than the infamous west coast trips, we have to schedule at least two, maybe three, games or (preferably) weekend series against either SEC or ACC teams. Nicholls has a higher RPI than us despite worse overall performance and a lot of it is probably due to playing a single game against a purple and yellow team that we don't play any more. There are multiple other teams out there I've heard about on social media who don't have great resumes or performance but played a handful of SEC or ACC teams (or even Big 12) and have RPI way higher than ours.

Can we do that? Like, is baseball scheduling any easier than basketball? How far out (years) are baseball schedules made? (honestly asking, I have no idea about college baseball)
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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by tulaneoutlaw »

I think most baseball schedules are made the same year. Want to add we should be looking at b12 games as well, mid week or weekend. I had a post a while back about the feasibility of midweek games against p4 opponents, especially since some weeks you can play two midweek. Alabama, miss st, ole miss and houston are all 5 hours or closer drive time. Florida St, auburn and tamu arent much further. Even outside of lsu we ought to be able to play one or more of these each year. And of course Dallas is an easy flight too, making tcu and Baylor readily accessible.
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by FW »

long green wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 2:58 pm Uhlman earned another year going into this year’s tournament. We’re not “back,” but we’re getting there.
Uhlman was coming back regardless
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by FW »

Jay admitted last year's schedule was a mistake. This year was more of what he'd like to see, but he wants a couple of more "harder" OOC opponents. The problem is, less and less teams that draw well are willing to come to Tulane. Hopefully we can get a Mississippi State again, but it's hard for them to pass up 45,0000 fans in a weekend and the money that comes from it.
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by Baywave1 »

There are good B12 and ACC teams we could play home and home with. (UCF, Duke, etc). Wouldn’t sell tickets but would boost RPI.

Otherwise just play SEC teams on road for money games. Midweek two games on Tuesday/Wednesday would work if weekends are out.

NCAA Chair said obvious: OOC SOS matters. As someone noted, Nicholls playing LSU twice helped its RPI alot. There are 13 other teams (soon to be 15) in SEC that would happily host us and maybe one or two would play home and home
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by GSx »

When your league is number 12, you have to prioritize playing a tough OOC schedule. The 2023 schedule was not too difficult, but 3 West Coast trips was excessive (specifically going to Seattle-Hawaii). But the West Coast has good teams and they’re willing to play so keep playing them.
Losing LSU certainly hurts a lot.
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by Baywave1 »

GSx, Good summary. Fixing AAC baseball will be a multi-year slog. Meanwhile lots of other good OOC teams out west, we can do home and homes with.

Just have to beat them but maybe we take down both OSU and UCI this week?? :green wink:
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Re: ARE WE BACK?

Unread post by tjtlja »

FW wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 12:35 pm Jay admitted last year's schedule was a mistake. This year was more of what he'd like to see, but he wants a couple of more "harder" OOC opponents. The problem is, less and less teams that draw well are willing to come to Tulane. Hopefully we can get a Mississippi State again, but it's hard for them to pass up 45,0000 fans in a weekend and the money that comes from it.
In February and early March you can get Missouri, Auburn, Florida, Oklahoma, Vandy, and Kentucky to come to Turchin with a return trip the following year. None of those venues draw great that time of the year. Mid-week games with lsu, Ole Miss, Miss State, and A&M are all doable. And contacting Miss State, Texas, South Carolina, and A&M for weekend series could probably be accomplished just with the connections alone. I don’t think we pursue these series hard enough. Why, I don’t know.
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