‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by waverider »

ml wave wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:39 pm
gerryb323 wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:38 am Arch Manning just committed to Texas. Apropos of nothing.
Not saying that he'd turn down NIL money, but I'd be surprised if that was a factor in his decision.
I agree. His name and hype alone will have gotten NIL deals regardless of where he signed.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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lsu just picked up the first baseman from NS St who broke the freshman HR record and a potential 1st rd pick pitcher from Vandy. I wonder if NIL played into it.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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gerryb323 wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:38 am Arch Manning just committed to Texas. Apropos of nothing.
Texas now has the ESPN 300 #1 QB for 2023 and the ESPN 300 #2 QB for 2022 (reclassified to 2021).

Btw, Message Board Genius tweeted a post from a Tx A&M message board claiming that Texas offered $10Mil to Arch and Ole Miss couldn’t match it.

Arch’s top target, a Newman TE, committed to Texas last week.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by greenguy »

I saw Eli at the Boot in 1999 and offered to buy him a beer. I can't believe he didn't commit to Tulane on the spot.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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It pays to stay in school

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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

There's a lot of debate about the Rashada number. The lawyer that put that figure out has reason to inflate it as it helps his future clients. Regardless, his NIL deal would be for a span of time, not the lump sum in year 1. More likely he's making something closer to 5.5 million over the course of a 3 year contract. Still really good, but not quite what that infographic purports.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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Whereas two years ago 99% of college athletes wouldn't make $5.5M in their entire lives, much less $9.5M. Heck, I had teammates who played internationally for years and probably didn't make that in total for their careers.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

PeteRasche wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:48 pm Whereas two years ago 99% of college athletes wouldn't make $5.5M in their entire lives, much less $9.5M. Heck, I had teammates who played internationally for years and probably didn't make that in total for their careers.
It's still probably 99%. The number of guys getting this kind of money is still incredibly small. It's just they don't have to wait an arbitrary period to receive it while risking injury.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by waverider »

Per Chris Vannini on Brian Kelly’s session for sec media days.
Bijan Robinson talks about his Lamborghini. Brian Kelly talks about not being outbid for players.

Still wild how things changed so quickly.
Dan Wolken:
Brian Kelly was just asked about LSU’s collective not having as much money as other schools, putting the Tigers at a disadvantage. What a world.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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Saw a scroll that said Lane Kiffen wants to see a “salary cap” on NIL. I have been thinking the same thing as it is the only thing to keep it somewhat under control.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

waverider wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:58 pm Saw a scroll that said Lane Kiffen wants to see a “salary cap” on NIL. I have been thinking the same thing as it is the only thing to keep it somewhat under control.
Going to need for the players to be employees and a cba for that ti stand up in court. But I agree with him it's needed and I do think that's where it will go eventually
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:20 pm
waverider wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:58 pm Saw a scroll that said Lane Kiffen wants to see a “salary cap” on NIL. I have been thinking the same thing as it is the only thing to keep it somewhat under control.
Going to need for the players to be employees and a cba for that ti stand up in court. But I agree with him it's needed and I do think that's where it will go eventually
That sounds reasonable, along with a salary cap for coaches. There's no reason Lane Kiffen needs to earn more than $1 million per year.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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I read more of Kiffen’s statements from media day and the point he was making was that since coaches can’t be involved in distributing NIL funds to players, the boosters are essentially in control. He added that this could lead to problems if boosters are recruiting kids that the coach isn’t high on.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

LondonWave wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:39 am
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:20 pm
waverider wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:58 pm Saw a scroll that said Lane Kiffen wants to see a “salary cap” on NIL. I have been thinking the same thing as it is the only thing to keep it somewhat under control.
Going to need for the players to be employees and a cba for that ti stand up in court. But I agree with him it's needed and I do think that's where it will go eventually
That sounds reasonable, along with a salary cap for coaches. There's no reason Lane Kiffen needs to earn more than $1 million per year.
Indeed, the coaches in the NFL make a fraction of what the players do. The market should correct that issue on its own. There's just not that much advantage to paying a coach a big salary, relative to the advantage of paying for highly talented players. If we had a $25m collective and could pay coaches or players, I doubt any of us would advocate for paying coaches ahead of getting more talented athletes.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

waverider wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:35 pm I read more of Kiffen’s statements from media day and the point he was making was that since coaches can’t be involved in distributing NIL funds to players, the boosters are essentially in control. He added that this could lead to problems if boosters are recruiting kids that the coach isn’t high on.
Interestingly, the NCAA (with input from the schools) put in a rule that schools themselves could not run collectives. This was supposed to be a safety measure for keeping NIL from getting out of control and being pay for play. Hilariously it's allowed the opposite to happen which is why Kiffen is 100% correct to be concerned about that scenario.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:53 pm
LondonWave wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:39 am
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:20 pm
waverider wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:58 pm Saw a scroll that said Lane Kiffen wants to see a “salary cap” on NIL. I have been thinking the same thing as it is the only thing to keep it somewhat under control.
Going to need for the players to be employees and a cba for that ti stand up in court. But I agree with him it's needed and I do think that's where it will go eventually
That sounds reasonable, along with a salary cap for coaches. There's no reason Lane Kiffen needs to earn more than $1 million per year.
Indeed, the coaches in the NFL make a fraction of what the players do. The market should correct that issue on its own. There's just not that much advantage to paying a coach a big salary, relative to the advantage of paying for highly talented players. If we had a $25m collective and could pay coaches or players, I doubt any of us would advocate for paying coaches ahead of getting more talented athletes.
College is different than the pros. In the NFL players can play for a long time. In college the few who are going to get paid big bucks are only going to play for 3 years. So that coach who can develop the rest of those players is worth more.
We deserve so much better
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

wavedom wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:25 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:53 pm
LondonWave wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:39 am
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:20 pm
waverider wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:58 pm Saw a scroll that said Lane Kiffen wants to see a “salary cap” on NIL. I have been thinking the same thing as it is the only thing to keep it somewhat under control.
Going to need for the players to be employees and a cba for that ti stand up in court. But I agree with him it's needed and I do think that's where it will go eventually
That sounds reasonable, along with a salary cap for coaches. There's no reason Lane Kiffen needs to earn more than $1 million per year.
Indeed, the coaches in the NFL make a fraction of what the players do. The market should correct that issue on its own. There's just not that much advantage to paying a coach a big salary, relative to the advantage of paying for highly talented players. If we had a $25m collective and could pay coaches or players, I doubt any of us would advocate for paying coaches ahead of getting more talented athletes.
College is different than the pros. In the NFL players can play for a long time. In college the few who are going to get paid big bucks are only going to play for 3 years. So that coach who can develop the rest of those players is worth more.
NFL coaches have to do some developing too. And the average NFL career is like 3 years, so while it's possible to play longer term, few play more than the ~5 years a college player can. Nick Saban is probably a great coach from a development standpoint, but I don't think it's his development that wins them national titles. It's that 89% of his last four recruiting classes (actual number) are 4 and 5 star players. They are just more talented than everybody else and no amount of development by coaches without that level of talent is going to make up for that.

Sean McVeigh makes 8.5 million in the NFL so it's not like the coaches up there are hurting. But it's pretty easy to explain why the players' salaries make up the bulk of the personnel costs.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:30 pm
wavedom wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:25 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:53 pm
LondonWave wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:39 am
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:20 pm
waverider wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:58 pm Saw a scroll that said Lane Kiffen wants to see a “salary cap” on NIL. I have been thinking the same thing as it is the only thing to keep it somewhat under control.
Going to need for the players to be employees and a cba for that ti stand up in court. But I agree with him it's needed and I do think that's where it will go eventually
That sounds reasonable, along with a salary cap for coaches. There's no reason Lane Kiffen needs to earn more than $1 million per year.
Indeed, the coaches in the NFL make a fraction of what the players do. The market should correct that issue on its own. There's just not that much advantage to paying a coach a big salary, relative to the advantage of paying for highly talented players. If we had a $25m collective and could pay coaches or players, I doubt any of us would advocate for paying coaches ahead of getting more talented athletes.
College is different than the pros. In the NFL players can play for a long time. In college the few who are going to get paid big bucks are only going to play for 3 years. So that coach who can develop the rest of those players is worth more.
NFL coaches have to do some developing too. And the average NFL career is like 3 years, so while it's possible to play longer term, few play more than the ~5 years a college player can. Nick Saban is probably a great coach from a development standpoint, but I don't think it's his development that wins them national titles. It's that 89% of his last four recruiting classes (actual number) are 4 and 5 star players. They are just more talented than everybody else and no amount of development by coaches without that level of talent is going to make up for that.

Sean McVeigh makes 8.5 million in the NFL so it's not like the coaches up there are hurting. But it's pretty easy to explain why the players' salaries make up the bulk of the personnel costs.
I know the 3 year number has been out there a long time. it's skewed by the fact it includes guys who played just one game or just a few. More specifically we are talking about the players getting paid the big bucks. They play a lot longer than 3 years. In college the few that would get paid the big bucks are only going to play 3 years and be gone to the draft. You're kidding yourself if you think Saban wins just because he has more talent. The guy gets the full picture of what a coach needs to do to get those players to play at their best as a team every game.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by ml wave »

wavedom wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:25 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:53 pm
LondonWave wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:39 am
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:20 pm
waverider wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:58 pm Saw a scroll that said Lane Kiffen wants to see a “salary cap” on NIL. I have been thinking the same thing as it is the only thing to keep it somewhat under control.
Going to need for the players to be employees and a cba for that ti stand up in court. But I agree with him it's needed and I do think that's where it will go eventually
That sounds reasonable, along with a salary cap for coaches. There's no reason Lane Kiffen needs to earn more than $1 million per year.
Indeed, the coaches in the NFL make a fraction of what the players do. The market should correct that issue on its own. There's just not that much advantage to paying a coach a big salary, relative to the advantage of paying for highly talented players. If we had a $25m collective and could pay coaches or players, I doubt any of us would advocate for paying coaches ahead of getting more talented athletes.
College is different than the pros. In the NFL players can play for a long time. In college the few who are going to get paid big bucks are only going to play for 3 years. So that coach who can develop the rest of those players is worth more.
At least you're consistently wrong on this issue, gotta give you that.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

wavedom wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:53 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:30 pm
wavedom wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:25 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:53 pm
LondonWave wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:39 am
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:20 pm
waverider wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:58 pm Saw a scroll that said Lane Kiffen wants to see a “salary cap” on NIL. I have been thinking the same thing as it is the only thing to keep it somewhat under control.
Going to need for the players to be employees and a cba for that ti stand up in court. But I agree with him it's needed and I do think that's where it will go eventually
That sounds reasonable, along with a salary cap for coaches. There's no reason Lane Kiffen needs to earn more than $1 million per year.
Indeed, the coaches in the NFL make a fraction of what the players do. The market should correct that issue on its own. There's just not that much advantage to paying a coach a big salary, relative to the advantage of paying for highly talented players. If we had a $25m collective and could pay coaches or players, I doubt any of us would advocate for paying coaches ahead of getting more talented athletes.
College is different than the pros. In the NFL players can play for a long time. In college the few who are going to get paid big bucks are only going to play for 3 years. So that coach who can develop the rest of those players is worth more.
NFL coaches have to do some developing too. And the average NFL career is like 3 years, so while it's possible to play longer term, few play more than the ~5 years a college player can. Nick Saban is probably a great coach from a development standpoint, but I don't think it's his development that wins them national titles. It's that 89% of his last four recruiting classes (actual number) are 4 and 5 star players. They are just more talented than everybody else and no amount of development by coaches without that level of talent is going to make up for that.

Sean McVeigh makes 8.5 million in the NFL so it's not like the coaches up there are hurting. But it's pretty easy to explain why the players' salaries make up the bulk of the personnel costs.
I know the 3 year number has been out there a long time. it's skewed by the fact it includes guys who played just one game or just a few. More specifically we are talking about the players getting paid the big bucks. They play a lot longer than 3 years. In college the few that would get paid the big bucks are only going to play 3 years and be gone to the draft. You're kidding yourself if you think Saban wins just because he has more talent. The guy gets the full picture of what a coach needs to do to get those players to play at their best as a team every game.
Obviously saban is special. I acknowledged he is also a good developer of talent. It's clear he is a generational program builder. But you're kidding yourself if any of those things outweighs his massive talent advantage. Matt Campbell at Iowa St. Does those things too and yet his ceiling is a ny6 game, not 7 national championships plus a few runners up.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

ml wave wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:25 pm
wavedom wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:25 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:53 pm
LondonWave wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:39 am
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:20 pm
waverider wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:58 pm Saw a scroll that said Lane Kiffen wants to see a “salary cap” on NIL. I have been thinking the same thing as it is the only thing to keep it somewhat under control.
Going to need for the players to be employees and a cba for that ti stand up in court. But I agree with him it's needed and I do think that's where it will go eventually
That sounds reasonable, along with a salary cap for coaches. There's no reason Lane Kiffen needs to earn more than $1 million per year.
Indeed, the coaches in the NFL make a fraction of what the players do. The market should correct that issue on its own. There's just not that much advantage to paying a coach a big salary, relative to the advantage of paying for highly talented players. If we had a $25m collective and could pay coaches or players, I doubt any of us would advocate for paying coaches ahead of getting more talented athletes.
College is different than the pros. In the NFL players can play for a long time. In college the few who are going to get paid big bucks are only going to play for 3 years. So that coach who can develop the rest of those players is worth more.
At least you're consistently wrong on this issue, gotta give you that.
As usual you are wrong yet again.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:17 pm
wavedom wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:53 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:30 pm
wavedom wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 2:25 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:53 pm
LondonWave wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:39 am
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:20 pm
waverider wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:58 pm Saw a scroll that said Lane Kiffen wants to see a “salary cap” on NIL. I have been thinking the same thing as it is the only thing to keep it somewhat under control.
Going to need for the players to be employees and a cba for that ti stand up in court. But I agree with him it's needed and I do think that's where it will go eventually
That sounds reasonable, along with a salary cap for coaches. There's no reason Lane Kiffen needs to earn more than $1 million per year.
Indeed, the coaches in the NFL make a fraction of what the players do. The market should correct that issue on its own. There's just not that much advantage to paying a coach a big salary, relative to the advantage of paying for highly talented players. If we had a $25m collective and could pay coaches or players, I doubt any of us would advocate for paying coaches ahead of getting more talented athletes.
College is different than the pros. In the NFL players can play for a long time. In college the few who are going to get paid big bucks are only going to play for 3 years. So that coach who can develop the rest of those players is worth more.
NFL coaches have to do some developing too. And the average NFL career is like 3 years, so while it's possible to play longer term, few play more than the ~5 years a college player can. Nick Saban is probably a great coach from a development standpoint, but I don't think it's his development that wins them national titles. It's that 89% of his last four recruiting classes (actual number) are 4 and 5 star players. They are just more talented than everybody else and no amount of development by coaches without that level of talent is going to make up for that.

Sean McVeigh makes 8.5 million in the NFL so it's not like the coaches up there are hurting. But it's pretty easy to explain why the players' salaries make up the bulk of the personnel costs.
I know the 3 year number has been out there a long time. it's skewed by the fact it includes guys who played just one game or just a few. More specifically we are talking about the players getting paid the big bucks. They play a lot longer than 3 years. In college the few that would get paid the big bucks are only going to play 3 years and be gone to the draft. You're kidding yourself if you think Saban wins just because he has more talent. The guy gets the full picture of what a coach needs to do to get those players to play at their best as a team every game.
Obviously saban is special. I acknowledged he is also a good developer of talent. It's clear he is a generational program builder. But you're kidding yourself if any of those things outweighs his massive talent advantage. Matt Campbell at Iowa St. Does those things too and yet his ceiling is a ny6 game, not 7 national championships plus a few runners up.
He plays in the best conference against teams with high end talent. Beats them regularly. You’re kidding yourself if you don’t see it’s about more than talent.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

I can't help you then. I clearly posted it's about more than talent. My point is that talent is the key ingredient. It doesn't guarantee success but you can't win at that level without it no matter how good a coach you may be.

At any rate the market will decide who is correct. Do you think coaches will continue to make significantly more than players in perpetuity? It would be unique among monetized sports in that regard. I can't name another one in the world that follows that model.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Jul 19, 2022 6:06 pm I can't help you then. I clearly posted it's about more than talent. My point is that talent is the key ingredient. It doesn't guarantee success but you can't win at that level without it no matter how good a coach you may be.

At any rate the market will decide who is correct. Do you think coaches will continue to make significantly more than players in perpetuity? It would be unique among monetized sports in that regard. I can't name another one in the world that follows that model.
You did say it was more than talent but ended with stressing his massive talent advantage. I can't help you if you don't see he doesn't have a massive advantage against most of the teams he plays in conference and in the playoffs.

Yes the coaches will continue to make more. There aren't billionaire owners paying the players here. It's fans and they won't be shelling out those type of salaries to players.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by waverider »

This is a great article if you have time to read it. I read it yesterday at work and it really gives you insight into why Saban is so successful.

The hardest job in college football? Nick Saban's defensive backs coach

https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... acks-coach

It’s the attention to detail and excessive preparation that makes his teams so good.
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