Big 12 Expansion

[tjtlja]

Just saw article on ESPN where Houston, Cinncy, UCF, & BYU are being considered for expansion in the Big 12. Bummer if this happens.

[PeteRasche]

Apparently mentioned in The Athletic too (I have not looked, just heard).

As discussed here previously, I don't believe this could happen and the Big 12 keep their P5 status and autonomy. If these teams allowed the Big 12 to retain "P" status in ESPN's opinion, it would have happened almost commensurately with the OU/UT departure (or, heck, they would have added them years ago). I think Bowlsby saw the writing on the wall, admitted he knew he was losing "P" status, and basically asked ESPN if there were teams he could add that would still cause all his teams to get more money than merging with the whole existing AAC. My guess is ESPN is open to that and will indeed offer these teams more money than the current AAC contract (or even a rewritten one with L8 teams added). As many have said here, we really needed some power conferences to pick off a couple of the L8 before this so the Big 12 poaching our "cream" was not even a viable option. That hasn't happened...

If those four teams join the Big 12 and are somehow indeed allowed to keep P5 status, I think our shot at ever being a "P" team probably vanishes permanently (short of something like complete NCAA disbanding, which could happen eventually).

All of this said... there have been so many rumors and "I'm hearing it's a done deal and will be announced in the next few days" stories that have all not come true whatsoever... I'm not losing sleep.

[Marathon Wave]

[url]https://www-cbssports-com.cdn.ampprojec ... ort%2F[url]

Just can't see them still being Power anything just by adding these 4 teams. If do, AAC would be Power already.

[Poseidon]

Honestly, as long as the tv payout and contract remains intact and the playoff expands to 12 I think we'll be ok.

[Poseidon]

If the AAC loses three to the Big 12 then it can back fill with 4 or 6 whichever is needed ot kkep the current tv contract.

If Aresco could convince Boise, Air Force and CSU or SDSU. Add one of whoever ESPN want from CUSA/SBC and then you would have a western divison of Boise, SMU, Tulsa, Navy, AFA, and CSU/SDSU. East Divison of Tulane, Memphis, Temple, USF, ECU. New cream would rise to the top and in two years the AAC would be as good as they are today. Basically on par with the neo big 12.

[tulaneoutlaw]

If they aren't power 5, with those teams that league would be stronger than what's left of the AAC. I'm not trying to bring doom and gloom, but this looks pretty bleak for us. Being in the AAC was great as we benefitted from being with the best of the rest. If we lose the best brands in our conference, it becomes that much harder for us to do anything of note on the national stage.

The current model for 12 teams is 6 at large and 6 top conference champions. Not only would the AAC be much weaker if the Big 12 expands, it would not be hard for the existing powers to change that to 5 highest champions and 7 at larges. That's more room for P5 teams and they can claim that 5 league champs is inclusive since the remade B12 would be like the AAC is now.

[Yankeewave]

i hope UCF gets rolled tonight

[GSx]

If they aren't power 5, with those teams that league would be stronger than what's left of the AAC. I'm not trying to bring doom and gloom, but this looks pretty bleak for us.

yea they would be, but the AAC is still fine. Just don't make the mistake of bringing in C-USA or SBC teams.
Big 10 needs to pick up Kansas to get them out of the new big 12; I know they suck at football, but they are a major brand and a major university (and yes, that matters).

[PeteRasche]

If the AAC loses three to the Big 12 then it can back fill with 4 or 6 whichever is needed ot kkep the current tv contract.

... Except it can't. Just like how ESPN told the Big 12 there were no AAC teams worthy of power status 5 years ago, they also told the AAC there were no teams worthy of the AAC adding when we looked at a small expansion. Various people here have championed the cause of BYU, Boise, AFU, CSU, SDSU, etc. but ESPN sees no value in us adding any of them; that's why we didn't add them when we renewed our contract and that's why we currently get more money than the MWC.

Plain and simple, as outlaw and I said above, if we lose those teams to the Big 12, we will take a huge hit in quality. I can't see any way we keep the current ESPN contract without them, either. It will be like when the Big East poached CUSA and we had to backfill with the likes of North Texas, UTSA, etc. We can try to rationalize it into something good (as everyone did in those days) but it's honestly going to suck.

[tjtlja]

Just the thought of it indicates how insignificant we are. It just sucks on the eve of a new season. It is a terrible feeling. I know we could succeed at a Big 12 level if given the opportunity. But I am getting that sinking feeling because this is Tulane athletics we are talking about.

If we are picking up Sunbelt & CUSA teams, what little interest we have in our program now will just about evaporate. Would anyone on this board be excited about a new conference including La Tech, ULL, App State, Liberty, Coastal Carolina, etc. This is our worst nightmare happening now. I am disgusted and depressed. This is our last chance and no one is thinking it will happen.

[waverider]

Honestly, as long as the tv payout and contract remains intact and the playoff expands to 12 I think we'll be ok.

From what I was told by someone close to the situation is if the AAC loses 3 or more teams the current TV contract will be voided and the new one could be significantly less.

[tjtlja]

Honestly, as long as the tv payout and contract remains intact and the playoff expands to 12 I think we'll be ok.

From what I was told by someone close to the situation is if the AAC loses 3 or more teams the current TV contract will be voided and the new one could be significantly less.

More good news.

Who is the person close to the situation that told you this? Does it really matter at this point if you disclose your contact. What is Dannen telling you about our fate? Do we have any chance of surviving? What is Aresco doing to save our conference. Why don’t we take the initiative and invite 3-4 schools from the Big 12?

[waverider]

I did see Aresco addressed the situation but I haven’t watched the video ESPN put on their app.

It doesn’t help the conference when teams like Tulsa lose to FCS schools.

I do know there has been discussions with other conferences but no details on those.

[wavedom]

If the AAC loses three to the Big 12 then it can back fill with 4 or 6 whichever is needed ot kkep the current tv contract.

... Except it can't. Just like how ESPN told the Big 12 there were no AAC teams worthy of power status 5 years ago, they also told the AAC there were no teams worthy of the AAC adding when we looked at a small expansion. Various people here have championed the cause of BYU, Boise, AFU, CSU, SDSU, etc. but ESPN sees no value in us adding any of them; that's why we didn't add them when we renewed our contract and that's why we currently get more money than the MWC.

Plain and simple, as outlaw and I said above, if we lose those teams to the Big 12, we will take a huge hit in quality. I can't see any way we keep the current ESPN contract without them, either. It will be like when the Big East poached CUSA and we had to backfill with the likes of North Texas, UTSA, etc. We can try to rationalize it into something good (as everyone did in those days) but it's honestly going to suck.

Unfortunately this.

[wavedom]

Honestly, as long as the tv payout and contract remains intact and the playoff expands to 12 I think we'll be ok.

From what I was told by someone close to the situation is if the AAC loses 3 or more teams the current TV contract will be voided and the new one could be significantly less.

More good news.

Who is the person close to the situation that told you this? Does it really matter at this point if you disclose your contact. What is Dannen telling you about our fate? Do we have any chance of surviving? What is Aresco doing to save our conference. Why don’t we take the initiative and invite 3-4 schools from the Big 12?

As I've said all along the Big 12 has the leverage. Their name is a bigger brand and they'll have all that buyout money from OU and UT to dangle to schools to join them. Sad but true.

[tjtlja]

I am convinced. We are done barring a miracle.

[PeteRasche]

I am disgusted and depressed.

So it's an average day for you?

[tulaneoutlaw]

This is just the beginning of the great winnowing of the sport. I'm becoming more and more convinced we see somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-40 top teams in terms of resources break away over the next 20 years. It won't happen overnight, but eventually the economics won't make sense. Why should Alabama play by the same rules as ULM?

We won't be in that number thanks to poor decisions decades ago. But lots of others will get left behind too. I don't think Ole Miss or Miss St. Or Vandy make that leap. They are already just riding Bama and LSUs coat tails. The little 8 are just the start of even P5 teams getting left behind. It's not about competitiveness. Oklahoma St., TCU, Baylor, and K St. Have both been a game away from either the BCS title game or the playoff in the last two decades. It's about brand, fan base, and the money those bring in. As this reorg happens, I hope we can be near the top of whatever that new secondary level looks like.

If we could buy time, I think the odds of the AAC absorbing the little 8 are much higher. But in the short run they have all the advantages of still being considered P5 and that will be hard for aresco to overcome.

[gerryb323]

Oh good, we needed another thread about this

[Johnny Mac]

This is just the beginning of the great winnowing of the sport. I'm becoming more and more convinced we see somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-40 top teams in terms of resources break away over the next 20 years. It won't happen overnight, but eventually the economics won't make sense. Why should Alabama play by the same rules as ULM?

We won't be in that number thanks to poor decisions decades ago. But lots of others will get left behind too. I don't think Ole Miss or Miss St. Or Vandy make that leap. They are already just riding Bama and LSUs coat tails. The little 8 are just the start of even P5 teams getting left behind. It's not about competitiveness. Oklahoma St., TCU, Baylor, and K St. Have both been a game away from either the BCS title game or the playoff in the last two decades. It's about brand, fan base, and the money those bring in. As this reorg happens, I hope we can be near the top of whatever that new secondary level looks like.

If we could buy time, I think the odds of the AAC absorbing the little 8 are much higher. But in the short run they have all the advantages of still being considered P5 and that will be hard for aresco to overcome.

the biggest question would be "how much money will be there for the secondary level?" I think a lot of schools will look at the budget line item for football, the lack of the big revenue they got under the old system and decide "big time football isn't worth the expense".. and just move to 1AA

the reason there are 300+ MBB teams in D1 is because 1. the big schools need the little guys to build their win totals 2. there is a relatively equitable distribution of the billions being paid for the tournament (proportionally.. the tiny conferences obviously don't get as much by sending only 1 team to the dance, but the money is enticing enough to be D1). If there was a similar need of the top echelon teams you see breaking away to still play the "minor" teams, then the scenario you envision can be prevented... the teams not invited to the "dance" can just say "see ya... enjoy playing a potentially non-winnable homecoming game". It would take 1AA teams and lower level G5 teams being disciplined enough to say "no" to the huge pay day offers.

[charlamange8]

Sooo there are a number of ways to go here...

IF we lose UC, UCF and UH then how does the AAC respond?

Get back to 12 by backfilling from the C-USA/Sunbelt?
I am thinking UAB/Marshall/App St. and ODU .... (USM, UL-L, La. Tech, Geo. Southern, Georgia St., Liberty???)
UAB is a no brainer a big school in a big market in a football mad state with a commitment to their program.
Marshall sorta matters? I don't know...they don't suck...
App St. is a good sun belt squad with a niche following and good facilities....does ECU say no?
ODU is in Norfolk, helps Temple and Navy with travel...Good school, good basketball...Potential?

The others....
usm....we hate them, but well we hate them.
ul-l ....Massive facilities investments...they are good (until Napier leaves), they are also good at basketball and baseball but no TV benefit.
La Tech....why? Does anyone in Shreveport care?
Geo. Southern....hahahahaha
Georgia St. is in Atlanta, but no one cares...yet...possible sleeping giant (I guess UNC-Charlotte fits that as well)
Liberty...good young program, large facilities investment...large following...elephant in the room is the ultra...yeah...them...


Another path....
Some sort of merger with the cream of the MWC/CUSA/Sunbelt? Go to 16 team league with pods? This gets just about every other relevant team out of the Group of 5.

Large markets in Boise, Colorado (CSU and AF), Fresno and San Diego out west...Memphis, Dallas, Tulsa, New Orleans, Tampa, Birmingham, Philadelphia...Games in every time zone...

You play your pod plus another pod and the geographically closest team to you out of the remaining two pods...


West Pod
BSU, CSU, Fresno St. and SDSU
Central Pod
Air Force, Memphis, SMU, Tulsa (man the killed us last night)
Southeast Pod
Tulane, USF, ECU, UAB
Northeast Pod
Navy, Temple, App. St. & Marshall (or Coastal Carolina or ODU...)

For instance one season Tulane in the SE Pod would play the WEst Pod (BSU, CSU, Fresno St. and SDSU) our SE Pod (USF, ECU & UAB) plus SMU.


I think the 16 team pod format is the best move going forward...for stability, for television contracts and to ensure we get a team or two in the playoffs every year. I also think this keeps the P6 narrative going.

[Baywave1]

A report today says B12 may add teams before UT/OU leave. If true it means they are somewhat buying teams to join.

Interesting.

As relates to AAC replacements, it must take best of rest regardless of conference or location. AAC needs to maintain space over other G4.

So Boise State here you come! Maybe…..

[tulaneoutlaw]

This is just the beginning of the great winnowing of the sport. I'm becoming more and more convinced we see somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-40 top teams in terms of resources break away over the next 20 years. It won't happen overnight, but eventually the economics won't make sense. Why should Alabama play by the same rules as ULM?

We won't be in that number thanks to poor decisions decades ago. But lots of others will get left behind too. I don't think Ole Miss or Miss St. Or Vandy make that leap. They are already just riding Bama and LSUs coat tails. The little 8 are just the start of even P5 teams getting left behind. It's not about competitiveness. Oklahoma St., TCU, Baylor, and K St. Have both been a game away from either the BCS title game or the playoff in the last two decades. It's about brand, fan base, and the money those bring in. As this reorg happens, I hope we can be near the top of whatever that new secondary level looks like.

If we could buy time, I think the odds of the AAC absorbing the little 8 are much higher. But in the short run they have all the advantages of still being considered P5 and that will be hard for aresco to overcome.

the biggest question would be "how much money will be there for the secondary level?" I think a lot of schools will look at the budget line item for football, the lack of the big revenue they got under the old system and decide "big time football isn't worth the expense".. and just move to 1AA

the reason there are 300+ MBB teams in D1 is because 1. the big schools need the little guys to build their win totals 2. there is a relatively equitable distribution of the billions being paid for the tournament (proportionally.. the tiny conferences obviously don't get as much by sending only 1 team to the dance, but the money is enticing enough to be D1). If there was a similar need of the top echelon teams you see breaking away to still play the "minor" teams, then the scenario you envision can be prevented... the teams not invited to the "dance" can just say "see ya... enjoy playing a potentially non-winnable homecoming game". It would take 1AA teams and lower level G5 teams being disciplined enough to say "no" to the huge pay day offers.

I agree. The biggest thing preventing my scenario will be that in a 30-40 team "super league", some schools who think highly of themselves will become bottom feeders. Tennessee and Michigan and USC already have struggles of various degrees. Imagine what happens if the entire schedule become alabama, clemson, uga, oklahoma, etc. So if all of those schools agree to keep the lower division in the loop to bolster wins and perception, then maybe we hang around at the top level. I still think that even then mobility between the levels will be 0, even less than what it's been over the last few waves of realignment.

[tulaneoutlaw]

The answer to AAC expansion if the B12 poaches teams has to be to follow the money. What set of additions, if any, does a major network/streaming partner give us the most money per school for? I don't think it will be the standard raid the Sun Belt or CUSA answer. I do like some of the thoughts around merging with the top of the MWV to create a "best of the rest" league.

If somebody is going to nuke our house, we might as well try to respond by going as big as possible. I'd be in favor of looking at BSU, San Diego St., Fresno St., Colorado St., Air Force and maybe a couple of others. Maybe there's a CUSA/Belt school or Liberty in the mix there to round things out. But you only add schools if they bring more money to the table and can be expected to be competitive programs. You don't add on potential like CUSA did last round; we don't have time to let potential become actual value anymore.

[Poseidon]

This is just the beginning of the great winnowing of the sport. I'm becoming more and more convinced we see somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-40 top teams in terms of resources break away over the next 20 years. It won't happen overnight, but eventually the economics won't make sense. Why should Alabama play by the same rules as ULM?

We won't be in that number thanks to poor decisions decades ago. But lots of others will get left behind too. I don't think Ole Miss or Miss St. Or Vandy make that leap. They are already just riding Bama and LSUs coat tails. The little 8 are just the start of even P5 teams getting left behind. It's not about competitiveness. Oklahoma St., TCU, Baylor, and K St. Have both been a game away from either the BCS title game or the playoff in the last two decades. It's about brand, fan base, and the money those bring in. As this reorg happens, I hope we can be near the top of whatever that new secondary level looks like.

If we could buy time, I think the odds of the AAC absorbing the little 8 are much higher. But in the short run they have all the advantages of still being considered P5 and that will be hard for aresco to overcome.

the biggest question would be "how much money will be there for the secondary level?" I think a lot of schools will look at the budget line item for football, the lack of the big revenue they got under the old system and decide "big time football isn't worth the expense".. and just move to 1AA

the reason there are 300+ MBB teams in D1 is because 1. the big schools need the little guys to build their win totals 2. there is a relatively equitable distribution of the billions being paid for the tournament (proportionally.. the tiny conferences obviously don't get as much by sending only 1 team to the dance, but the money is enticing enough to be D1). If there was a similar need of the top echelon teams you see breaking away to still play the "minor" teams, then the scenario you envision can be prevented... the teams not invited to the "dance" can just say "see ya... enjoy playing a potentially non-winnable homecoming game". It would take 1AA teams and lower level G5 teams being disciplined enough to say "no" to the huge pay day offers.

I agree. The biggest thing preventing my scenario will be that in a 30-40 team "super league", some schools who think highly of themselves will become bottom feeders. Tennessee and Michigan and USC already have struggles of various degrees. Imagine what happens if the entire schedule become alabama, clemson, uga, oklahoma, etc. So if all of those schools agree to keep the lower division in the loop to bolster wins and perception, then maybe we hang around at the top level. I still think that even then mobility between the levels will be 0, even less than what it's been over the last few waves of realignment.

The blue bloods want a super league, but they have major blindspots. As you say some of them will become bottom feeders and unlike the NFL there won't be a draft to bail them out. As Tulane, Rutgers, Vandy, or any number if schools how hard it is to climb out of that. Another blind spot is they assume that the fans of the left behinds who watch them casually today will continue to do so. I think that is one hell of a thing to assume. If there is no relegation and moving up and the left behinds don't play the super leaguers in bowls or the regular season, then the left behind's following will not tune in. They would be throwing at least 20%, possibly much more of the overall national audience out the window in the long run. That won't help their TV contracts.