ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
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ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
ESPN Preseason FPI's AAC Rankings:
1. Cincy
2. Tulane
3. Memphis
4. Houston
5. Tulsa
6. UCF
7. SMU
8. ECU
9. USF
10. Navy
11. Temple
HT: @FearTheWaveBlog and @angerywave via Twitter
Thoughts?
1. Cincy
2. Tulane
3. Memphis
4. Houston
5. Tulsa
6. UCF
7. SMU
8. ECU
9. USF
10. Navy
11. Temple
HT: @FearTheWaveBlog and @angerywave via Twitter
Thoughts?
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
#36
My thought is: I hope it's accurate!
My thought is: I hope it's accurate!
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
I'm curious what it'll look like after our 3-6 or 4-5 start to the season.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
Ditto, especially the 8 wins projection.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
It's a power rating, not a won-loss projection.
I'd be curious to see what change there was in Tulsa's power rating between 2019 and 2020. In 2019 they went 4-8 but had a large number of "shouldn't have" losses. Last year they had a good record with at least two "shouldn't have" wins and some other close ones.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
I would take it at the end of the season. It would mean that we will be in the AAC Championship Game. Given our schedule, it would also mean that we would beat UCF, SMU, Memphis, Houston, Tulsa, or at least 4 of 5. I'd take that in a heartbeat.Sophandros wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:58 am ESPN Preseason FPI's AAC Rankings:
1. Cincy
2. Tulane
3. Memphis
4. Houston
5. Tulsa
6. UCF
7. SMU
8. ECU
9. USF
10. Navy
11. Temple
HT: @FearTheWaveBlog and @angerywave via Twitter
Thoughts?
It also might mean that WF might go to KU. j/k
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
If it's true it makes it the perfect season to have the schedule level up in difficulty. And it could end up very special. We'll see; there's a lot of what-ifs going into this year IMHO.
Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
If this is the case we should just fold it up and become a baseball school.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
Agreed on both. I am really curious about the "assumption" (presumably?) that our defense will magically stop giving up huge drive-extending, soul-crushing plays just because we have a new DC. I sure hope it's correct though.
Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
Or we are projected to hang a hundo on 'em allPeteRasche wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:46 pmAgreed on both. I am really curious about the "assumption" (presumably?) that our defense will magically stop giving up huge drive-extending, soul-crushing plays just because we have a new DC. I sure hope it's correct though.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
It Does have win loss projections. It Has Tulane going 7.8-4.6 and being the 36th best team in the countrylong green wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:14 pmIt's a power rating, not a won-loss projection.
I'd be curious to see what change there was in Tulsa's power rating between 2019 and 2020. In 2019 they went 4-8 but had a large number of "shouldn't have" losses. Last year they had a good record with at least two "shouldn't have" wins and some other close ones.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
Evidence Espn pays zero attention to our conference.
Didnt SMU get a bunch of stud transfers?
We are losing what CFN predicts as 2 4th rounders off oyr front 7. Tough to see how we are 2nd
Didnt SMU get a bunch of stud transfers?
We are losing what CFN predicts as 2 4th rounders off oyr front 7. Tough to see how we are 2nd
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
It’s An algorithmYankeewave wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:23 pm Evidence Espn pays zero attention to our conference.
Didnt SMU get a bunch of stud transfers?
We are losing what CFN predicts as 2 4th rounders off oyr front 7. Tough to see how we are 2nd
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
It will be good to see where we are in SP+ compared to FPI. ESPN puts our both metrics now and as visual notes, both are algorithms that weight different performance measures. When they agree it's usually good news for the projection for a team that year. When they don't it means much more variability is likely. I don't think the offseason SP+ is out yet.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
Just My opinion but the ESPN FPI is underrating UCF
Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
I find SP+ to be a little more accuratetulaneoutlaw wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:18 pm It will be good to see where we are in SP+ compared to FPI. ESPN puts our both metrics now and as visual notes, both are algorithms that weight different performance measures. When they agree it's usually good news for the projection for a team that year. When they don't it means much more variability is likely. I don't think the offseason SP+ is out yet.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
There is no eyeroll emoji big enough
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
I and my wallet both agree That said, the signal when both agree is usually very solidwaverider wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:21 pmI find SP+ to be a little more accuratetulaneoutlaw wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:18 pm It will be good to see where we are in SP+ compared to FPI. ESPN puts our both metrics now and as visual notes, both are algorithms that weight different performance measures. When they agree it's usually good news for the projection for a team that year. When they don't it means much more variability is likely. I don't think the offseason SP+ is out yet.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
OK, so I finally had some time to pull this into a google sheet with all schools, highlight our row in Olive and Blue, and start poking around. No in-depth analysis yet for a few reasons, including but not limited to my having approximately three Belgian Tripels tonight.
FPI has us ranked #36, just below Coastal Carolina and just above Wake Forest.
7.8 projected wins
4.6 projected losses
This totals 12.4, which means they expect it to come down to a couple of our conference games to determine who faces off against Cincinnati for the AAC title. Memphis at #43 also has 12.4 games (8.7-3.7), Houston at #66 is at 12.2 (8.0-4.2), and Tulsa at #67 is 12.1 (6.3-5.. Oklahoma and/or Mississippi State contribute to our higher loss total, but we may be a better team than Memphis/Houston/Tulsa overall. I say this because FPI gives us an 18.9% to win the conference (there are no divisions) compared to 16.9% for Memphis, 5.2% for Houston, and 3.6% for Tulsa. Cincinnati has a 51.3% chance to win the AAC. The other 4.1% odds are for the remainder of the field.
FPI is high on us. It gives us a 92% chance of winning six games. For reference, Cincinnati is at 99.7%, while Memphis, Houston, and Tulsa are 98.2%, 95.7%, and 71.5%, respectively. We have a higher rating and roughly the same expected win total than Memphis and Houston, yet our odds of 6+ wins are lower because our schedule is slightly more difficult.
Oklahoma, who is our opponent on my wedding anniversary, is ranked #2. Their expected record is 11.2-1.7. Maybe we're that 0.7? They have a 73.2% chance of making the playoff, and a 46% chance of winning it all. They have a 16% chance of winning out.
Ole Miss is ranked #22, going 6.9-5.1 with an 0.4% chance of making the playoff and 0.0% chance of winning it all. They have a 0.0% chance of winning out, primarily because the world knows they will lose to us.
I think that's enough for now.
FPI has us ranked #36, just below Coastal Carolina and just above Wake Forest.
7.8 projected wins
4.6 projected losses
This totals 12.4, which means they expect it to come down to a couple of our conference games to determine who faces off against Cincinnati for the AAC title. Memphis at #43 also has 12.4 games (8.7-3.7), Houston at #66 is at 12.2 (8.0-4.2), and Tulsa at #67 is 12.1 (6.3-5.. Oklahoma and/or Mississippi State contribute to our higher loss total, but we may be a better team than Memphis/Houston/Tulsa overall. I say this because FPI gives us an 18.9% to win the conference (there are no divisions) compared to 16.9% for Memphis, 5.2% for Houston, and 3.6% for Tulsa. Cincinnati has a 51.3% chance to win the AAC. The other 4.1% odds are for the remainder of the field.
FPI is high on us. It gives us a 92% chance of winning six games. For reference, Cincinnati is at 99.7%, while Memphis, Houston, and Tulsa are 98.2%, 95.7%, and 71.5%, respectively. We have a higher rating and roughly the same expected win total than Memphis and Houston, yet our odds of 6+ wins are lower because our schedule is slightly more difficult.
Oklahoma, who is our opponent on my wedding anniversary, is ranked #2. Their expected record is 11.2-1.7. Maybe we're that 0.7? They have a 73.2% chance of making the playoff, and a 46% chance of winning it all. They have a 16% chance of winning out.
Ole Miss is ranked #22, going 6.9-5.1 with an 0.4% chance of making the playoff and 0.0% chance of winning it all. They have a 0.0% chance of winning out, primarily because the world knows they will lose to us.
I think that's enough for now.
Sports Talk radio and most sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
We Play Ole Miss not Mississippi State. Mississippi State at 8 is shocking. They were bad last yearSophandros wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:05 pm OK, so I finally had some time to pull this into a google sheet with all schools, highlight our row in Olive and Blue, and start poking around. No in-depth analysis yet for a few reasons, including but not limited to my having approximately three Belgian Tripels tonight.
FPI has us ranked #36, just below Coastal Carolina and just above Wake Forest.
7.8 projected wins
4.6 projected losses
This totals 12.4, which means they expect it to come down to a couple of our conference games to determine who faces off against Cincinnati for the AAC title. Memphis at #43 also has 12.4 games (8.7-3.7), Houston at #66 is at 12.2 (8.0-4.2), and Tulsa at #67 is 12.1 (6.3-5.. Oklahoma and/or Mississippi State contribute to our higher loss total, but we may be a better team than Memphis/Houston/Tulsa overall. I say this because FPI gives us an 18.9% to win the conference (there are no divisions) compared to 16.9% for Memphis, 5.2% for Houston, and 3.6% for Tulsa. Cincinnati has a 51.3% chance to win the AAC. The other 4.1% odds are for the remainder of the field.
FPI is high on us. It gives us a 92% chance of winning six games. For reference, Cincinnati is at 99.7%, while Memphis, Houston, and Tulsa are 98.2%, 95.7%, and 71.5%, respectively. We have a higher rating and roughly the same expected win total than Memphis and Houston, yet our odds of 6+ wins are lower because our schedule is slightly more difficult.
Oklahoma, who is our opponent on my wedding anniversary, is ranked #2. Their expected record is 11.2-1.7. Maybe we're that 0.7? They have a 73.2% chance of making the playoff, and a 46% chance of winning it all. They have a 16% chance of winning out.
Mississippi State is ranked #8, going 8.2-3.9 with an 8.1% chance of making the playoff and 2.7% chance of winning it all. They have a 0.2% chance of winning out, primarily because the world knows they will lose to us.
I think that's enough for now.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
Told you I was a few beers in. Thinking about what was supposed to be this year's schedule at the same time as what will be next year's. I'll amend.visualmagic wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:15 pmWe Play Ole Miss not Mississippi State. Mississippi State at 8 is shocking. They were bad last yearSophandros wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:05 pm OK, so I finally had some time to pull this into a google sheet with all schools, highlight our row in Olive and Blue, and start poking around. No in-depth analysis yet for a few reasons, including but not limited to my having approximately three Belgian Tripels tonight.
FPI has us ranked #36, just below Coastal Carolina and just above Wake Forest.
7.8 projected wins
4.6 projected losses
This totals 12.4, which means they expect it to come down to a couple of our conference games to determine who faces off against Cincinnati for the AAC title. Memphis at #43 also has 12.4 games (8.7-3.7), Houston at #66 is at 12.2 (8.0-4.2), and Tulsa at #67 is 12.1 (6.3-5.. Oklahoma and/or Mississippi State contribute to our higher loss total, but we may be a better team than Memphis/Houston/Tulsa overall. I say this because FPI gives us an 18.9% to win the conference (there are no divisions) compared to 16.9% for Memphis, 5.2% for Houston, and 3.6% for Tulsa. Cincinnati has a 51.3% chance to win the AAC. The other 4.1% odds are for the remainder of the field.
FPI is high on us. It gives us a 92% chance of winning six games. For reference, Cincinnati is at 99.7%, while Memphis, Houston, and Tulsa are 98.2%, 95.7%, and 71.5%, respectively. We have a higher rating and roughly the same expected win total than Memphis and Houston, yet our odds of 6+ wins are lower because our schedule is slightly more difficult.
Oklahoma, who is our opponent on my wedding anniversary, is ranked #2. Their expected record is 11.2-1.7. Maybe we're that 0.7? They have a 73.2% chance of making the playoff, and a 46% chance of winning it all. They have a 16% chance of winning out.
Mississippi State is ranked #8, going 8.2-3.9 with an 8.1% chance of making the playoff and 2.7% chance of winning it all. They have a 0.2% chance of winning out, primarily because the world knows they will lose to us.
I think that's enough for now.
EDIT: Original post is now edited. I'll leave my mistakes here because I'm the kind of guy who owns his errors.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
We play Ole Miss not Miss State, but that doesnt change your point. Ole miss is still 22 so it doesnt change much. Its basically picking us to lose to Ole Miss, OU, Cincey and 1 or 2 of Tulsa, UCF, Memphis, and Houston. If we go 3-1 there we get in CCG. It curiously has SMU much lower and we know we havent beat them under Frtitz so I dont really think it accounts for matchups. I think it is more important where we are playing these teams. Taking 2 of 3 @ Memphis, SMU, and UCF will be tougher than taking 2 of 3 at home vs Tulsa, Cincy, and Houston.Sophandros wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:05 pm OK, so I finally had some time to pull this into a google sheet with all schools, highlight our row in Olive and Blue, and start poking around. No in-depth analysis yet for a few reasons, including but not limited to my having approximately three Belgian Tripels tonight.
FPI has us ranked #36, just below Coastal Carolina and just above Wake Forest.
7.8 projected wins
4.6 projected losses
This totals 12.4, which means they expect it to come down to a couple of our conference games to determine who faces off against Cincinnati for the AAC title. Memphis at #43 also has 12.4 games (8.7-3.7), Houston at #66 is at 12.2 (8.0-4.2), and Tulsa at #67 is 12.1 (6.3-5.. Oklahoma and/or Mississippi State contribute to our higher loss total, but we may be a better team than Memphis/Houston/Tulsa overall. I say this because FPI gives us an 18.9% to win the conference (there are no divisions) compared to 16.9% for Memphis, 5.2% for Houston, and 3.6% for Tulsa. Cincinnati has a 51.3% chance to win the AAC. The other 4.1% odds are for the remainder of the field.
FPI is high on us. It gives us a 92% chance of winning six games. For reference, Cincinnati is at 99.7%, while Memphis, Houston, and Tulsa are 98.2%, 95.7%, and 71.5%, respectively. We have a higher rating and roughly the same expected win total than Memphis and Houston, yet our odds of 6+ wins are lower because our schedule is slightly more difficult.
Oklahoma, who is our opponent on my wedding anniversary, is ranked #2. Their expected record is 11.2-1.7. Maybe we're that 0.7? They have a 73.2% chance of making the playoff, and a 46% chance of winning it all. They have a 16% chance of winning out.
Mississippi State is ranked #8, going 8.2-3.9 with an 8.1% chance of making the playoff and 2.7% chance of winning it all. They have a 0.2% chance of winning out, primarily because the world knows they will lose to us.
I think that's enough for now.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings
That's basically what his post was: a big eyeroll to your post(warranted; no offense, just the way I see it).
As for SMU, I'm sure it doesn't account for a series of flukes. And they lost a lot this year. I hope we can persevere.