ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

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Sophandros
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ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by Sophandros »

ESPN Preseason FPI's AAC Rankings:

1. Cincy
2. Tulane
3. Memphis
4. Houston
5. Tulsa
6. UCF
7. SMU
8. ECU
9. USF
10. Navy
11. Temple

HT: @FearTheWaveBlog and @angerywave via Twitter

Thoughts?
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by GSx »

#36
My thought is: I hope it's accurate!
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by WaveProf »

I'm curious what it'll look like after our 3-6 or 4-5 start to the season.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by Sophandros »

GSx wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:04 pm #36
My thought is: I hope it's accurate!
Ditto, especially the 8 wins projection.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by long green »

WaveProf wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:05 pm I'm curious what it'll look like after our 3-6 or 4-5 start to the season.
It's a power rating, not a won-loss projection.

I'd be curious to see what change there was in Tulsa's power rating between 2019 and 2020. In 2019 they went 4-8 but had a large number of "shouldn't have" losses. Last year they had a good record with at least two "shouldn't have" wins and some other close ones.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by Rotorooter »

Sophandros wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:58 am ESPN Preseason FPI's AAC Rankings:

1. Cincy
2. Tulane
3. Memphis
4. Houston
5. Tulsa
6. UCF
7. SMU
8. ECU
9. USF
10. Navy
11. Temple

HT: @FearTheWaveBlog and @angerywave via Twitter

Thoughts?
I would take it at the end of the season. It would mean that we will be in the AAC Championship Game. Given our schedule, it would also mean that we would beat UCF, SMU, Memphis, Houston, Tulsa, or at least 4 of 5. I'd take that in a heartbeat.

It also might mean that WF might go to KU. j/k
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by GretnaGrn »

If it's true it makes it the perfect season to have the schedule level up in difficulty. And it could end up very special. We'll see; there's a lot of what-ifs going into this year IMHO.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by waverider »

WaveProf wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:05 pm I'm curious what it'll look like after our 3-6 or 4-5 start to the season.
If this is the case we should just fold it up and become a baseball school.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by PeteRasche »

GretnaGrn wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:27 pm If it's true it makes it the perfect season to have the schedule level up in difficulty. And it could end up very special. We'll see; there's a lot of what-ifs going into this year IMHO.
Agreed on both. I am really curious about the "assumption" (presumably?) that our defense will magically stop giving up huge drive-extending, soul-crushing plays just because we have a new DC. I sure hope it's correct though.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by windywave »

PeteRasche wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:46 pm
GretnaGrn wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:27 pm If it's true it makes it the perfect season to have the schedule level up in difficulty. And it could end up very special. We'll see; there's a lot of what-ifs going into this year IMHO.
Agreed on both. I am really curious about the "assumption" (presumably?) that our defense will magically stop giving up huge drive-extending, soul-crushing plays just because we have a new DC. I sure hope it's correct though.
Or we are projected to hang a hundo on 'em all
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by visualmagic »

long green wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:14 pm
WaveProf wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:05 pm I'm curious what it'll look like after our 3-6 or 4-5 start to the season.
It's a power rating, not a won-loss projection.

I'd be curious to see what change there was in Tulsa's power rating between 2019 and 2020. In 2019 they went 4-8 but had a large number of "shouldn't have" losses. Last year they had a good record with at least two "shouldn't have" wins and some other close ones.
It Does have win loss projections. It Has Tulane going 7.8-4.6 and being the 36th best team in the country
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by Yankeewave »

Evidence Espn pays zero attention to our conference.

Didnt SMU get a bunch of stud transfers?

We are losing what CFN predicts as 2 4th rounders off oyr front 7. Tough to see how we are 2nd
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by visualmagic »

Yankeewave wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:23 pm Evidence Espn pays zero attention to our conference.

Didnt SMU get a bunch of stud transfers?

We are losing what CFN predicts as 2 4th rounders off oyr front 7. Tough to see how we are 2nd
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

It will be good to see where we are in SP+ compared to FPI. ESPN puts our both metrics now and as visual notes, both are algorithms that weight different performance measures. When they agree it's usually good news for the projection for a team that year. When they don't it means much more variability is likely. I don't think the offseason SP+ is out yet.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by visualmagic »

Just My opinion but the ESPN FPI is underrating UCF
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by waverider »

tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:18 pm It will be good to see where we are in SP+ compared to FPI. ESPN puts our both metrics now and as visual notes, both are algorithms that weight different performance measures. When they agree it's usually good news for the projection for a team that year. When they don't it means much more variability is likely. I don't think the offseason SP+ is out yet.
I find SP+ to be a little more accurate
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by WaveProf »

waverider wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:32 pm
WaveProf wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:05 pm I'm curious what it'll look like after our 3-6 or 4-5 start to the season.
If this is the case we should just fold it up and become a baseball school.
There is no eyeroll emoji big enough
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

waverider wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:21 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:18 pm It will be good to see where we are in SP+ compared to FPI. ESPN puts our both metrics now and as visual notes, both are algorithms that weight different performance measures. When they agree it's usually good news for the projection for a team that year. When they don't it means much more variability is likely. I don't think the offseason SP+ is out yet.
I find SP+ to be a little more accurate
I and my wallet both agree :lol: That said, the signal when both agree is usually very solid
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by tjtlja »

GSx wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:04 pm #36
My thought is: I hope it's accurate!
GSx, great answer!
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by Sophandros »

OK, so I finally had some time to pull this into a google sheet with all schools, highlight our row in Olive and Blue, and start poking around. No in-depth analysis yet for a few reasons, including but not limited to my having approximately three Belgian Tripels tonight.

FPI has us ranked #36, just below Coastal Carolina and just above Wake Forest.

7.8 projected wins
4.6 projected losses

This totals 12.4, which means they expect it to come down to a couple of our conference games to determine who faces off against Cincinnati for the AAC title. Memphis at #43 also has 12.4 games (8.7-3.7), Houston at #66 is at 12.2 (8.0-4.2), and Tulsa at #67 is 12.1 (6.3-5.8). Oklahoma and/or Mississippi State contribute to our higher loss total, but we may be a better team than Memphis/Houston/Tulsa overall. I say this because FPI gives us an 18.9% to win the conference (there are no divisions) compared to 16.9% for Memphis, 5.2% for Houston, and 3.6% for Tulsa. Cincinnati has a 51.3% chance to win the AAC. The other 4.1% odds are for the remainder of the field.

FPI is high on us. It gives us a 92% chance of winning six games. For reference, Cincinnati is at 99.7%, while Memphis, Houston, and Tulsa are 98.2%, 95.7%, and 71.5%, respectively. We have a higher rating and roughly the same expected win total than Memphis and Houston, yet our odds of 6+ wins are lower because our schedule is slightly more difficult.

Oklahoma, who is our opponent on my wedding anniversary, is ranked #2. Their expected record is 11.2-1.7. Maybe we're that 0.7? They have a 73.2% chance of making the playoff, and a 46% chance of winning it all. They have a 16% chance of winning out.

Ole Miss is ranked #22, going 6.9-5.1 with an 0.4% chance of making the playoff and 0.0% chance of winning it all. They have a 0.0% chance of winning out, primarily because the world knows they will lose to us.

I think that's enough for now.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by visualmagic »

Sophandros wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:05 pm OK, so I finally had some time to pull this into a google sheet with all schools, highlight our row in Olive and Blue, and start poking around. No in-depth analysis yet for a few reasons, including but not limited to my having approximately three Belgian Tripels tonight.

FPI has us ranked #36, just below Coastal Carolina and just above Wake Forest.

7.8 projected wins
4.6 projected losses

This totals 12.4, which means they expect it to come down to a couple of our conference games to determine who faces off against Cincinnati for the AAC title. Memphis at #43 also has 12.4 games (8.7-3.7), Houston at #66 is at 12.2 (8.0-4.2), and Tulsa at #67 is 12.1 (6.3-5.8). Oklahoma and/or Mississippi State contribute to our higher loss total, but we may be a better team than Memphis/Houston/Tulsa overall. I say this because FPI gives us an 18.9% to win the conference (there are no divisions) compared to 16.9% for Memphis, 5.2% for Houston, and 3.6% for Tulsa. Cincinnati has a 51.3% chance to win the AAC. The other 4.1% odds are for the remainder of the field.

FPI is high on us. It gives us a 92% chance of winning six games. For reference, Cincinnati is at 99.7%, while Memphis, Houston, and Tulsa are 98.2%, 95.7%, and 71.5%, respectively. We have a higher rating and roughly the same expected win total than Memphis and Houston, yet our odds of 6+ wins are lower because our schedule is slightly more difficult.

Oklahoma, who is our opponent on my wedding anniversary, is ranked #2. Their expected record is 11.2-1.7. Maybe we're that 0.7? They have a 73.2% chance of making the playoff, and a 46% chance of winning it all. They have a 16% chance of winning out.

Mississippi State is ranked #8, going 8.2-3.9 with an 8.1% chance of making the playoff and 2.7% chance of winning it all. They have a 0.2% chance of winning out, primarily because the world knows they will lose to us.

I think that's enough for now.
We Play Ole Miss not Mississippi State. Mississippi State at 8 is shocking. They were bad last year
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by Sophandros »

visualmagic wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:15 pm
Sophandros wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:05 pm OK, so I finally had some time to pull this into a google sheet with all schools, highlight our row in Olive and Blue, and start poking around. No in-depth analysis yet for a few reasons, including but not limited to my having approximately three Belgian Tripels tonight.

FPI has us ranked #36, just below Coastal Carolina and just above Wake Forest.

7.8 projected wins
4.6 projected losses

This totals 12.4, which means they expect it to come down to a couple of our conference games to determine who faces off against Cincinnati for the AAC title. Memphis at #43 also has 12.4 games (8.7-3.7), Houston at #66 is at 12.2 (8.0-4.2), and Tulsa at #67 is 12.1 (6.3-5.8). Oklahoma and/or Mississippi State contribute to our higher loss total, but we may be a better team than Memphis/Houston/Tulsa overall. I say this because FPI gives us an 18.9% to win the conference (there are no divisions) compared to 16.9% for Memphis, 5.2% for Houston, and 3.6% for Tulsa. Cincinnati has a 51.3% chance to win the AAC. The other 4.1% odds are for the remainder of the field.

FPI is high on us. It gives us a 92% chance of winning six games. For reference, Cincinnati is at 99.7%, while Memphis, Houston, and Tulsa are 98.2%, 95.7%, and 71.5%, respectively. We have a higher rating and roughly the same expected win total than Memphis and Houston, yet our odds of 6+ wins are lower because our schedule is slightly more difficult.

Oklahoma, who is our opponent on my wedding anniversary, is ranked #2. Their expected record is 11.2-1.7. Maybe we're that 0.7? They have a 73.2% chance of making the playoff, and a 46% chance of winning it all. They have a 16% chance of winning out.

Mississippi State is ranked #8, going 8.2-3.9 with an 8.1% chance of making the playoff and 2.7% chance of winning it all. They have a 0.2% chance of winning out, primarily because the world knows they will lose to us.

I think that's enough for now.
We Play Ole Miss not Mississippi State. Mississippi State at 8 is shocking. They were bad last year
Told you I was a few beers in. Thinking about what was supposed to be this year's schedule at the same time as what will be next year's. I'll amend.

EDIT: Original post is now edited. I'll leave my mistakes here because I'm the kind of guy who owns his errors.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by Poseidon »

Sophandros wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:05 pm OK, so I finally had some time to pull this into a google sheet with all schools, highlight our row in Olive and Blue, and start poking around. No in-depth analysis yet for a few reasons, including but not limited to my having approximately three Belgian Tripels tonight.

FPI has us ranked #36, just below Coastal Carolina and just above Wake Forest.

7.8 projected wins
4.6 projected losses

This totals 12.4, which means they expect it to come down to a couple of our conference games to determine who faces off against Cincinnati for the AAC title. Memphis at #43 also has 12.4 games (8.7-3.7), Houston at #66 is at 12.2 (8.0-4.2), and Tulsa at #67 is 12.1 (6.3-5.8). Oklahoma and/or Mississippi State contribute to our higher loss total, but we may be a better team than Memphis/Houston/Tulsa overall. I say this because FPI gives us an 18.9% to win the conference (there are no divisions) compared to 16.9% for Memphis, 5.2% for Houston, and 3.6% for Tulsa. Cincinnati has a 51.3% chance to win the AAC. The other 4.1% odds are for the remainder of the field.

FPI is high on us. It gives us a 92% chance of winning six games. For reference, Cincinnati is at 99.7%, while Memphis, Houston, and Tulsa are 98.2%, 95.7%, and 71.5%, respectively. We have a higher rating and roughly the same expected win total than Memphis and Houston, yet our odds of 6+ wins are lower because our schedule is slightly more difficult.

Oklahoma, who is our opponent on my wedding anniversary, is ranked #2. Their expected record is 11.2-1.7. Maybe we're that 0.7? They have a 73.2% chance of making the playoff, and a 46% chance of winning it all. They have a 16% chance of winning out.

Mississippi State is ranked #8, going 8.2-3.9 with an 8.1% chance of making the playoff and 2.7% chance of winning it all. They have a 0.2% chance of winning out, primarily because the world knows they will lose to us.

I think that's enough for now.
We play Ole Miss not Miss State, but that doesnt change your point. Ole miss is still 22 so it doesnt change much. Its basically picking us to lose to Ole Miss, OU, Cincey and 1 or 2 of Tulsa, UCF, Memphis, and Houston. If we go 3-1 there we get in CCG. It curiously has SMU much lower and we know we havent beat them under Frtitz so I dont really think it accounts for matchups. I think it is more important where we are playing these teams. Taking 2 of 3 @ Memphis, SMU, and UCF will be tougher than taking 2 of 3 at home vs Tulsa, Cincy, and Houston.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by GSx »

WaveProf wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:38 pm
waverider wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:32 pm
WaveProf wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:05 pm I'm curious what it'll look like after our 3-6 or 4-5 start to the season.
If this is the case we should just fold it up and become a baseball school.
There is no eyeroll emoji big enough
That's basically what his post was: a big eyeroll to your post(warranted; no offense, just the way I see it).
As for SMU, I'm sure it doesn't account for a series of flukes. And they lost a lot this year. I hope we can persevere.
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Re: ESPN Preseason AAC FPI Rankings

Post by Ray »

GSx wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:04 pm #36
My thought is: I hope it's accurate!
:!: :!: :!: :!:
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