Baseball RPI and SOS

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tjtlja
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by tjtlja »

So it is dropping some this weekend. The season has over 30 games left to play. There will be so much jockeying going on over the next two months. Let’s talk about this in late April if we continue winning.
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Ray
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by Ray »

3rd or better in our conference has to be a target.
visualmagic
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by visualmagic »

Ray wrote:3rd or better in our conference has to be a target.
Agreed, 3rd place I’d be confident that we make a regional. 4th will be cutting it close and our non-conference résumé is not going to do us any favors
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FW
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by FW »

Warren Nolan projects 40-16 just to get to 52 in RPI. We literally have no margin for error.
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gerryb323
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by gerryb323 »

FW wrote:Warren Nolan projects 40-16 just to get to 52 in RPI. We literally have no margin for error.
9 losses is margin for error! Roller's got us at 49-7!
Wandering around somewhere in a matchup zone
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BC Wave
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by BC Wave »

What the dog said!
Baywave1
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by Baywave1 »

well then just win the regular season and tourney AAC.
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maddog
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by maddog »

We are fun to watch. We can rake. Pitching has potential. If it comes together we can pass 40 wins. It's on the table for us.
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by Yankeewave »

Rpi is 91 after sweep
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Roller
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by Roller »

gerryb323 wrote:...
Roller's got us at 49-7!
Damn straight!
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FW
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by FW »

It’s settled at 89 with an SOS of 110. RPI fell 9 with the sweep and SOS fell 44.
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FW
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by FW »

Record: 17-8
RPI: 108
SOS: 135

:shock:
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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

I think we should plan on winning the conference tournament if we want a bid this year. Top 2 or 3 might get us there, but "might" is a dirty word come tournament selection time.
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gerryb323
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by gerryb323 »

We haven't even started conference play yet. Let's see some games there before we start fretting
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TulaneTiger
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by TulaneTiger »

FW wrote:Warren Nolan projects 40-16 just to get to 52 in RPI. We literally have no margin for error.
Yeah, I did this calculation last night.

Gonna have to win the conference regular season or conference tournament, most likely.
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FW
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by FW »

Record: 19-9, 2-1
RPI: 105
SOS: 158
Baywave1
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by Baywave1 »

TulaneTiger wrote:
FW wrote:Warren Nolan projects 40-16 just to get to 52 in RPI. We literally have no margin for error.
Yeah, I did this calculation last night.

Gonna have to win the conference regular season or conference tournament, most likely.
Then do it. We just had an MBB coach who publicly started focusing on AAC tourney in Early January. That turned out real well. We have 90% of our conference schedule left. Save the dice rolling for May if the team underachieves over the next month and a half.
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FW
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by FW »

After SLU

Record: 22-11
RPI: 89
SOS: 136

Upcoming schedule

USF: 114
UNO: 169
Memphis: 115
SLU: 104
ECU: 11
UNO: 169
UCF: 34
NSU: 153
UH: 51
USA: 93
UConn: 28


FWIW, Warren Nolan predicts we finish 38-18 with an RPI of 64 and an SOS of 102.

We control our own destiny to an extent. We have the tougher part of our schedule ahead of us, but we ABSOLUTELY have no margin for error. We absolutely cannot lose anymore games to UNO or Nicholls type opponents, and we're going to have to sweep the Memphis types and win 2 of 3 from the ECU and UCF's.
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FW
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by FW »

As of right now, we're nowhere near the postseason radar.

From the AAC:

ECU 1(hosting)
UConn 2

UCF and Houston are in the "First Five Out"

Only teams from our OOC schedule are UCSB as a 2 and Ole Miss as a 2.

https://d1baseball.com/projections/coll ... 4-april-2/
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by Wavefam985 »

We will have to finish 1st or 2nd in conference to get a regional bid - not sure we would get in with a 3rd place finish or worst.

Does anyone else get the feeling that a regional bid is not the focus? Just seems to me that they way we are managing mid-week games and the innings being logged by our front-line guys that all we are trying to accomplish is to have a winning record. How else do you reconcile using your closer in the 9th with a 6-run lead on a Tuesday (and letting him throw 50+ pitches) or last week using your then closer to get 7 outs (again 50+ pitches)? My eyes tell me that we are just counting wins to have a winning record at the end of the year.
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by ml wave »

Wavefam985 wrote:We will have to finish 1st or 2nd in conference to get a regional bid - not sure we would get in with a 3rd place finish or worst.

Does anyone else get the feeling that a regional bid is not the focus? Just seems to me that they way we are managing mid-week games and the innings being logged by our front-line guys that all we are trying to accomplish is to have a winning record. How else do you reconcile using your closer in the 9th with a 6-run lead on a Tuesday (and letting him throw 50+ pitches) or last week using your then closer to get 7 outs (again 50+ pitches)? My eyes tell me that we are just counting wins to have a winning record at the end of the year.
Not sure how you differentiate since the very small shot we currently have is predicated on not losing any more of these midweek games.
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Poseidon
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by Poseidon »

ml wave wrote:
Wavefam985 wrote:We will have to finish 1st or 2nd in conference to get a regional bid - not sure we would get in with a 3rd place finish or worst.

Does anyone else get the feeling that a regional bid is not the focus? Just seems to me that they way we are managing mid-week games and the innings being logged by our front-line guys that all we are trying to accomplish is to have a winning record. How else do you reconcile using your closer in the 9th with a 6-run lead on a Tuesday (and letting him throw 50+ pitches) or last week using your then closer to get 7 outs (again 50+ pitches)? My eyes tell me that we are just counting wins to have a winning record at the end of the year.
Not sure how you differentiate since the very small shot we currently have is predicated on not losing any more of these midweek games.
LSU told him mid week games don't matter, but for us they do
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FW
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by FW »

Wavefam985 wrote:We will have to finish 1st or 2nd in conference to get a regional bid - not sure we would get in with a 3rd place finish or worst.

Does anyone else get the feeling that a regional bid is not the focus? Just seems to me that they way we are managing mid-week games and the innings being logged by our front-line guys that all we are trying to accomplish is to have a winning record. How else do you reconcile using your closer in the 9th with a 6-run lead on a Tuesday (and letting him throw 50+ pitches) or last week using your then closer to get 7 outs (again 50+ pitches)? My eyes tell me that we are just counting wins to have a winning record at the end of the year.
:?
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by Baywave1 »

Wavefam985 wrote:We will have to finish 1st or 2nd in conference to get a regional bid - not sure we would get in with a 3rd place finish or worst.

Does anyone else get the feeling that a regional bid is not the focus? Just seems to me that they way we are managing mid-week games and the innings being logged by our front-line guys that all we are trying to accomplish is to have a winning record. How else do you reconcile using your closer in the 9th with a 6-run lead on a Tuesday (and letting him throw 50+ pitches) or last week using your then closer to get 7 outs (again 50+ pitches)? My eyes tell me that we are just counting wins to have a winning record at the end of the year.
How about a trip to Occam's Razor land? You give someone the opportunity to learn and master their craft in theoretically less stressful situations (or less risky situations if he screws it up.) You want one of these guys to have a hold a late lead against ECU in the conference tournament while never having had to do it in the regular season?
visualmagic
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Re: Baseball RPI and SOS

Post by visualmagic »

Baywave1 wrote:
Wavefam985 wrote:We will have to finish 1st or 2nd in conference to get a regional bid - not sure we would get in with a 3rd place finish or worst.

Does anyone else get the feeling that a regional bid is not the focus? Just seems to me that they way we are managing mid-week games and the innings being logged by our front-line guys that all we are trying to accomplish is to have a winning record. How else do you reconcile using your closer in the 9th with a 6-run lead on a Tuesday (and letting him throw 50+ pitches) or last week using your then closer to get 7 outs (again 50+ pitches)? My eyes tell me that we are just counting wins to have a winning record at the end of the year.
How about a trip to Occam's Razor land? You give someone the opportunity to learn and master their craft in theoretically less stressful situations (or less risky situations if he screws it up.) You want one of these guys to have a hold a late lead against ECU in the conference tournament while never having had to do it in the regular season?
Cellucci has gotten those reps and reps in tougher situations than the one on Tuesday.
I agree with 985 that having Cellucci throw 50+ pitches was unwise but I don’t really understand his larger point about a regional bid not being the focus but rather just trying to get a winning record.
I think that was in mind when making the schedule but not in the day-to-day with bullpen management.
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